I think your calculations fail to take into account that there is a trading update of 33.1% drop in profit (previous profit guidance of $140m - $153m, downgraded to $98m).
In my experience, that profit downgrade in itself could drop the share price by around 33% (typically market seems to fall by around the profit downgrade %).
Throw in a dilutive capital raising which the market hates, and you have a share price much closer to $2.20 capital raising price than your theoretical price of just under $3.
I don't think the RFG capital raising is comparable to this one, as I don't believe that a large profit downgrade was announced at the same time as their capital raising.
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I think your calculations fail to take into account that there...
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