I think I'd be more concerned about Queensland real estate prices, as AOG have a very heavy bias towards it going forward. of the 418 units to be developed in FY19, 293 or 70% are Qld based...more specifically SE Qld based.
Of the entirety of the pipeline, 3,627 (or 79%) of the 4,604 are Qld based - too high a concentration and something which surely must be addressed by acquiring future land in the southern states. Perhaps this partly explains the recent additional finance facility.
I see this as a reasonable risk because the concentration is significant - surely the market risk and reward should be spread over Qld, NSW and Vic - if only to have a much bigger market appeal.
Thankfully, Qld RE prices have not tumbled like NSW and Vic and if history is any judge, Qld prices will stay higher for longer in any recession - reason - the retirees in southern states can sell their homes for way more than Qld prices and retire to the land of 'beautiful one day and perfect the next' with a bagful of dough to add to their Super Funds. An unabashed plug!
Plough, today's weather forecast is sunny and balmy.....how's NZ?
AOG Price at posting:
$2.00 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held