Ann: Annual Financial Report to shareholders-STX.AX, page-4

This is a nice and detailed report. I think an important number is the 103,588 MMcf 2C rated gas contingent probable gas reserves. This basically means that if the contingencies are removed (i.e commercial flows are achieved) there will be 50% chance that we can get the 103k MMcf out which at $2/Mcf translates into circa $2B. So expected value is $1B after contingencies are gone.
Current valuation is 1/10th of that, which means the market actually gives only 10% chance that the gas will actually flow. Isn't that very pessimistic? Thoughts?