NRZ 0.00% 0.3¢ neurizer ltd

Ann: Annual Financial Report, page-29

  1. J L
    1,530 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 153
    Oh boy, oh boy. You guys amaze me; getting excited over nothing. The rhetoric on this forum, and the persistence of "Buy" Sentiments from above 30 cents progressively down to 10 cents, is nothing short of embarrassing.

    The farmer is starting to feed the chooks. You have received the entree, just wait for the main course in less than two weeks (According to Morningstar's Schedule). The savvy investors will probably be sitting, either on the sideline or holding no more than a marketable parcel, waiting for the next announcement. Others will be sitting on a heap of stocks subject to horrendous opportunity costs. The poor things are experiencing real pain. I sympathise with them, but they don't deserve it. They continually feed on one another's rhetoric. The opportunity for decision making has probably expired. After the quarterly announcement, are you going to buy, cry, or sigh with relief.

    This is what Fitch has to say about fertiliser prices.

    Term Global FertiliserPrice Assumptions

    Tue 15 Jun, 2021 - 12:02 PM ET

    Fitch Ratings-Moscow/London-15 June2021: Fitch Ratings has raised most of its 2021 and 2022 fertiliser priceassumptions on strong year-to-date prices, strong agricultural commodity pricesand increased feedstock price assumptions. We expect spot prices to moderate in2H21 and 2022 due to an improved supply and demand balance, and moderatingfeedstock prices in 2022. Our long-term price assumptions remain unchanged.

    Fitch RatingsGlobal Fertiliser Price Assumptions


    2021

    2022

    2023

    2024

    Long-term

    Ammonia – FOB Black Sea

    270

    360

    260

    300

    260

    260

    260

    260

    260

    260

    DAP – FOB US Gulf Export

    430

    530

    380

    400

    360

    360

    360

    360

    360

    360

    Phosphate Rock – FOB Morocco

    95

    115

    90

    100

    90

    90

    90

    90

    90

    90

    Potash – FOB Vancouver

    230

    220

    230

    230

    230

    230

    230

    230

    230

    230

    Urea – FOB Black Sea

    280

    330

    260

    280

    250

    250

    250

    250

    250

    250

    USD/tonne

    Old

    New

    Old

    New

    Old

    New

    Old

    New

    Old

    New

    Assumptions as of June 2021

    Source: Fitch Ratings


    Based on the above figures, current short term price rises should have little or no impact on LCK. The big winners out of this are Orica and Incitec Pivot. They are going gangbusters. And I would expect no less from IPL as it managed by a very competent BODs, expertly led by an extraordinary visionary such as Jeanne Johns, BS Chemical Engineering, magna cum laude.

    So temper the excitement, guys, and focus on LCKs real issues instead of floating into dreamland. J L.
 
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