Oh boy, oh boy. You guys amaze me; getting excited over nothing. The rhetoric on this forum, and the persistence of "Buy" Sentiments from above 30 cents progressively down to 10 cents, is nothing short of embarrassing.
The farmer is starting to feed the chooks. You have received the entree, just wait for the main course in less than two weeks (According to Morningstar's Schedule). The savvy investors will probably be sitting, either on the sideline or holding no more than a marketable parcel, waiting for the next announcement. Others will be sitting on a heap of stocks subject to horrendous opportunity costs. The poor things are experiencing real pain. I sympathise with them, but they don't deserve it. They continually feed on one another's rhetoric. The opportunity for decision making has probably expired. After the quarterly announcement, are you going to buy, cry, or sigh with relief.
This is what Fitch has to say about fertiliser prices.Term Global FertiliserPrice Assumptions
Tue 15 Jun, 2021 - 12:02 PM ET
Fitch Ratings-Moscow/London-15 June2021: Fitch Ratings has raised most of its 2021 and 2022 fertiliser priceassumptions on strong year-to-date prices, strong agricultural commodity pricesand increased feedstock price assumptions. We expect spot prices to moderate in2H21 and 2022 due to an improved supply and demand balance, and moderatingfeedstock prices in 2022. Our long-term price assumptions remain unchanged.
Fitch RatingsGlobal Fertiliser Price Assumptions
2021
2022
2023
2024
Long-term
Ammonia – FOB Black Sea
270
360
260
300
260
260
260
260
260
260
DAP – FOB US Gulf Export
430
530
380
400
360
360
360
360
360
360
Phosphate Rock – FOB Morocco
95
115
90
100
90
90
90
90
90
90
Potash – FOB Vancouver
230
220
230
230
230
230
230
230
230
230
Urea – FOB Black Sea
280
330
260
280
250
250
250
250
250
250
USD/tonne
Old
New
Old
New
Old
New
Old
New
Old
New
Assumptions as of June 2021
Source: Fitch Ratings
Based on the above figures, current short term price rises should have little or no impact on LCK. The big winners out of this are Orica and Incitec Pivot. They are going gangbusters. And I would expect no less from IPL as it managed by a very competent BODs, expertly led by an extraordinary visionary such as Jeanne Johns, BS Chemical Engineering, magna cum laude.
So temper the excitement, guys, and focus on LCKs real issues instead of floating into dreamland. J L.
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