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You said that “Global tech is in a trough. Fears of recessions...

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    You said that “Global tech is in a trough. Fears of recessions and other global uncertainties have put the brakes on tech development.”


    However,several people say things are changing, global liquidity started rising again in October 2022 and a lot of that liquidity is flowing into AI/Tech. It is liquidity that is driving markets now.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=af5OS_PvOkc


    A bull market in liquidity started in October of 2022, and we know liquidity leads asset markets.

    Raoul Pal speaks with Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, about why the biggest force in global macro (liquidity) is pointing towards a new bull market in equities.


    Why Liquidity Matters:


    6:23 interest rates are the Paramount factor to look at in a world where you've got a lot of capital spending going on and you've got to compare a cost of capital with a return on capital


    … but that's not the world we're in anymore,we're in a world where there's huge amounts of debt refinancing going on 350trillion dollars of debt worldwide with an average maturity of around five years means you've got to roll over something like 70 trillion of debt every year, now it doesn't matter so much what the interest rate is and clearly it's important but that's not the critical point …


    …. if you've got 70 trillion of debt to refinance every year you need balance sheet capacity to do that and balance sheet capacity is a measure of liquidity and so liquidity is the Paramount factor in markets now. In a world of capital spending sure interest rates are relevant. But in a world of huge debt refinancing what you've got to do is essentially get the capacity and that is all about liquidity if you do the math….


    https://twitter.com/DTAPCAP/status/1660340514116206592/photo/1


    Dan Tapiero -Filter out all the noise. This is happening.Liquidity to increase as suggested with a high degree of probability by this chart and the strong correlation which it implies.


    https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1660051815675711488/photo/1


    Raoul Pal - It's liquidity that matters above all things.

    Last edited by koma: 24/05/23
 
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