VYS 3.13% 33.0¢ vysarn limited

Ann: Annual General Meeting Presentation, page-72

  1. 3,387 Posts.
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    Hi @daisydawg,

    • There are circa 355M VYS share on issue, so you are correct that a share price of 50 cents would equate to a market cap of approximately $180M, assuming no further dilution (which is a semi-reasonable assumption)
    • To justify a market cap of $180M, we would need to see a very strong rise in EBITDA over the next year or two and/or earnings accretive acquisitions which open up new growth avenues (a high possibility)
    • Money is flowing into resource stocks and mining stocks (as part of the post-COVID 'growth to value' rotation) and I think mining services companies will also get pulled along with this wave
    • Consequently, it would be not unrealistic to think that the EBITDA multiple that VYS trades at could rise. VYS management and analysts currently view 8x EBITDA as a fair multiple for this sector.
    • Let's imagine that this increases by 50% to 12x as a result of VYS diversifying into a full life of mine services provider and also let's assume this uptick in multiple is associated with increased attention on the sector and the growth of the stock (not unreasonable assumptions, but not guaranteed either)
    • On 12x EBITDA, VYS would need to be bringing in $15M in EBITDA per annum to achieve a market cap of $180M for a share price of 50 cents (assuming no further dilution)
    • This is a real possibility in the next 12-36 months. @BavanG has done some great analysis looking at earnings as a function of rig utilisation.
    • Personally, I've taken some profits off the table -- not because I don't have faith in VYS executing on the vision, but simply because I have a rules-based profit system and because I see some other exciting opportunities out there to pursue right now.
    • This is a nice little business and I hope the share price continues solid, steady growth

    Take care all and Merry Xmas.

    Cheers,

    T.E.P.
 
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