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Your being overly bullish IMOBarrick will only be interested in...

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Justis

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10/11/21

20:34

Post #: 57473958
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Originally posted by tomboy: ↑

I think discussions with BIG BIRD Barrick & Zijin are well advanced.

Barrick has taken more tenements around TRY yet needs that 1MTpa mill right in the middle.
Barrick needs the geo team, existing trained staff and central hub plus the extra tenements to turn this into a major gold hub for them.
If they were to build there own mill over 2 years it would cost $250M alone and compete agaist TRYs mill, why bother?
Easier & faster to give TRY $100M than do that.

There is clearly these issues being discussed:-
- full t/o or JV with recap say $20M and 20%-51% holding controlling stake
- Barrick gets royalties or more JV, exploration tenements
- Barrick wants the mill thats on C&M up and running to process ore
- Barrick wants the Smarts U/G for sure with those world class super high grades
- will they pay the capex to get that UG underway
- wil this relist or straight sale of all

If the issue is straight sale, then Barrick will have to take on the creditors (normally) & pay a sum of $100M cash despite current MC only $30M being 12.25c ps.
Remember TRY hit 16c a few times last 2 years.

If Barrick allows TRY to collapse then they might get them for cheaper but will have to compete with other buyers like Zijin or the whole project area could collapse into small tenement blocks which will cost them $200M to accumulate back over 10 years delay.

If I was Barrick, I would :-
- take a share chunk 51%
- put in 3 of 5 directors
- put in $20M cash plus credit line faility $10M
- keep the mill & hub operating and use the staff there
- put in a new CEO to run the area
- start up Smarts UG ASAP
- restart production of the grades they have even if loss producing until the UG ore comes through

This would keep it tight, clean, smooth transition, keep out Zijin & other small breakup types & keep the operation whole and fully funded.

In a few years it may be worth Bs to them rather than nothing.
Barrick says its interested yet we know Zijin is as well after their takeover nearby for $333M.
May well be a 2 way negotiation or dutch auction here.

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Your being overly bullish IMO

Barrick will only be interested in try if they think it was potential to be a tier one resource, try ticks a lot of boxes that need to be ticked but the big box is potential to be tier one. But Barrick don't mind spend a bit to find out, they have a budget of $260m just for exploration

IMO Barrick are evaluating the potential of Kurouni as a whole, time will tell

TRY Price at posting: 3.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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Your being overly bullish IMOBarrick will only be interested in...

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