But which long haul? Two options after March/April.
Recapitalization where we get 2.2c per share, others providing capital to turn debt to equity. Values Troy at roughly A$30m. With $120m in tax losses that's already worth A$30m, a plant for a triple digit million figure and a project with net cashflow of A$75m, most of it in mere months after start. With cut-off a multiple of what others in the area use (for u/g too). This will decrease upside considerably.
I am sure others will come forward now. E.g. Omai/Troy merger at 2:1 would dilute as as well but with something also offering exposure to gold. Then "only" A$18m would be needed + Capex for Smarts u/g.
A larger Omai/Troy company would have access to NA financing. The corporation is somewhat affiliated with Silvercorp and New Gold, both having large cash holdings and easily able to finance the new company.
Previously a Troy takeover would have been starting an adventure with unknown outcome. Premiums to consider, counter bids. Now there is a price that can be matched and that's all there is to a merger.
Of course after March/April it will be impossible as the amount of issued shares will then be too large.
We will see. I am sure something will be proposed.
TRY Price at posting:
3.7¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
