At a trailing P/E of 7.7x, do you think the market is pricing in...

At a trailing P/E of 7.7x, do you think the market is pricing in growth in FY22?

Or put it another way, what would a reasonably savvy investor pay for flat earnings of 80 cents per share? In my view, it's at least $8 per share, implying a forward P/E of 10x, for an earning yield of 10% per annum (a very healthy risk premium against a risk free rate of say 1.5%).

Have a look at some other consumer discretionary peers whose P/E multiples incorporate a growth premium.

Basically the market is pricing in a decent % chance that FY22 earnings will be lower than FY21, which provides GLB a low hurdle to beat. So, if GLB is able to show growth in FY22, the market could well reward GLB with a higher multiple than merely 7.7x. Clearly the market is at the very least somewhat worried that FY21 earnings represent a cyclical peak and earnings will mean revert to FY15 - FY20.

AGM commentary will be the next catalyst.