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What are the mood at such events?Does PB get heckled? I would...

  1. 935 Posts.
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    What are the mood at such events?
    Does PB get heckled? I would imagine the market sentiment has been down the last few years.

    PB usually pulls enough of a rabbit out the hat to keep things positive before the rabbit disappears back into the hat for another 1-2years.

    10 years is a long long wait. Silver lining is progress has indeed been made, and seemingly much of the pointless paperwork and hurdles are now done.

    It is frustrating though that for all that perceived work that has been completed is somewhat at the mercy of a 50/50 call on whether we can use a plot of land we were already promised?

    It is actually surprising to see just how small Darwin is and perhaps speaks to the difficulty of getting anything approved there.
    132k population. Seriously small Capital City (development wise) and just looking at satellite shots - there is alot of greensites around Darwin - areas that I would just assume to be part of Darwin metro already (ie Middle arm appears to be one that is only now just being developed?).

    Darwin's largest asset is its proximity to the rest of the world (ie it's function as a port) and we sold that for a dime to China.

    I would have thought Darwin would be itching for this sort of project and development. And rather than pointless hoops we could get conditional approval (ie yes we accept your proposal, on the basis you present these additional reports by XY date).

    There are some major major hurdles that seem to get bigger the more we tick of smaller (and somewhat trivial MOUs and BOAs).
    - The Darwin port lease as it stands potentially represents a significant sovereign risk that not only impacts Australia's risk rating and ability to loan money, but could also impact NT businesses ability to raise and loan money (ie TNG);
    - Middle Arm location in question;
    - Finance in current climate;
    - Construction cost blowouts in current climate.
    - The logistical setup of the company has turned into a complex network of international expertise in a time that the world is introverted;
    - Iron ore price is taking a nosedive in the window we are potentially shopping for finance;

    But I do take some positives at the SP being at ~8.3cents in current market conditions.
    Although we have taken 10 years to get here, the flip side of his is Darwin has been very anti-development during that time, so this was always going to be a slow burn. Despite the doom and gloom above, now does seem to be better timing for the "pointy end" that we seem to be approaching.

    Pros:
    - Australian Government do sound like they have the ability to tear up the Darwin lease (at considerable tax payer cost). But it is an option. Any conversation around this will be a positive for TNG;
    - Middle Arm is already home to NT's two largest gas processing facilities (Santos and INPEX). Middle Arm would be an ideal candidate for this further development;
    - As far as pointless announcements go, the recent Hydrogen joint venture announcement with AGV Energy cannot be underestimated. I actually see this as a brilliant move at this time - regardless of whether anything ever comes of it. To have a 'hydrogen' label stapled to the Mt Peake presentation will be an invaluable ticket of entry into Middle Arm and Darwin itself. The potential upside could be federal financial contributions down the track but lets not get carried away.
    - Playing devils advocate for a moment and having read all the documents readily available on - Darwin Processing Facility | NTEPA: I do sort of understand the NTEPA's hardball stance on issuing plots of land to Darwin. When you look at just how underdeveloped the area is you can begin to understand their hesitance to simply blow the doors wide open and invite everyone in. I think it's more representative of the door being ajar and let one person in at a time to make sure they don't wreck the place. They have an opportunity now to ensure they make positive development decisions for the future of Darwin - so I think there is certainly a balance there we can work through. Unfortunately I think that means being yes-men and answering the requests.
    - Protecting the environment and being anti development would be a weird hill to die on when we're talking about a major capital city zoned area and in close proximity with what must be considered a significant port of the future for Australia. Part of protecting the environment is finding a way to work with development - not reject it. In 10-20 years, Middle Arm will be unrecognizable from what it is now.
    - I think the discussions and announcements around SMS taking more of a consultancy role with Australian construction entities maximized is a good thing, not only for TNG but Darwin and Australia. We can see that in the recent swap of French-made subs to Australian-made American subs. It is the logical way forward in the current world.
    - The wheel turns slowly in Darwin but 10 years ago it didn't move at all. Slowly slowly we are adding that WD40.

    It's going to be a tense 12months.
    I HATE saying this, but pointy end does seem to be nigh in that the next hurdles are starting to become make or break for the company.

    I will close out this long winded post with a disclaimer and recommendation that no one be investing more in TNG that what they are prepared to lose in it's entirety. This one is on a knifes edge and I wouldn't be surprised to see this stock at 0.5cent, 8cents or 40cents in 2 years time. Such in the range of expectations and possibilities. GLTA and as always DYOR.
 
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