A solid set of numbers overall. They are doing exactly what they...

A solid set of numbers overall.

They are doing exactly what they said they would do, albeit the adoption/take up in the USA has probably being a tad slower than they anticipated/hoped for, but very good traction nonetheless.

Personally, I don't think the AU extrapolation to the US market is being tricky on RMY's part and they are just highlighting the TAM for investors based on their experience thus far in the Australian market. Remember, the way their marketing funnel works is that agents claim their profile, and often first sign up to the 'lite' subscription model before upgrading to a higher level subscription over time, so we should expect the ARPU from US agents to increase over time and in line with the Australian experience.

Regardless, lets assume they only achieve 50% of their addressable market and projections within the next three years. That would still be a ~$130m recurring revenue business. My best guestimate is that break even revenue is approximately $28m and after that approximately $0.75 in every dollar of incremental revenue should drop to the bottom line. In other words this business will be very profitable at scale and with a current MktCap of ~$67m looks very attractive IMHO.

Execution in the US remains key and I don't think the inflexion point is too far away.