Well, a bunch of hedging of tin production at above US $17,000. (Lender facility requirement): Win.
Why: Tin is going through a rough patch (Curr. in US $1500's) with new production from DRC (4k tons) and Indonesia (plus 8k tons?) putting a lump on the market, but soon cutting back one that sold. demand weaker with big barney between Japan and S. Korea (electronics) and US/China trade battle. Tin at 2 year lows. Dodged that (unexpected) bullet. Maybe slightly wounded. So using a ship metaphor, she has taken aboard some water but the pumps are working. Most tin is produced in dodgy places with low cost labour. Recent Burma supply shrinking. China largely worked out. Was biggest producer. Chinese smelters are operating far below capacity. Some may close?
Nickel prices on the up escalator, unlike most other metals which are going down. Cobalt price trend has turned around and heading up again. Wingellina laterite though, which means expensive plant. But its biiiigg….Win? Maybe.
So when will Nifty come out of hospital? Taxi or hearse? Well, no hearse. Biggish deposit, lots of new equipment, tunnels etc. If copper prices stay in doldrums can be mothballed. But consider in the next few years there will be a sharp reduction/supply deficit in production according to market forecasters. Chile mines closing? looking into that. High cost mines may be looking at shutting down as I speak. Some will never re open. There has been low investment in new copper production for 10 years. It takes a long time to get a mine up and running as we all know.
Think part of the current price is due to fast punters in the market going for gold, bitcoin, lithium, all that. No fast gains in MLX. Shorters may disagree. But there is very big stock in MLX mineral bank. Rentails, Wingellina, new high grade tin next year, so any shorter could be caught badly and expensively off guard if there is a sudden (hostile) offer. There may be no warning.
Think that about the middle of net calendar year many will be saying why the f---- didn't I buy then!!??
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