Ann: Annual Report to shareholders, page-11

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ravishankaray

11,084 Posts.

01/10/14

11:35

Post #: 14056101
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Originally posted by psi81 ↑

Good to get confirmation of Surprise total production of 21,000 bbls.

My decline curve analysis predicted production of 23,000 bbls by June 30, so considering the well was probably shut in for a week or two, that's very good agreement.

I maintain my prediction that Surprise in its current form will produce only 100-200 kbbls with a best estimate of around 150 kbbls. It will struggle to pay off its costs at that level of production.

What I do find strange is that the 1P Reserves estimate was something like 600 kbbls. Something obviously went wrong there. But if they can get well costs down (such as if the rig is already in the area for another well so they don't have to pay mobilisation) they could potentially go back and drill some more laterals into Surprise and get the rest of the 1 MMbbls of 2P. I think Surprise will keep slipped further off the first pages of the presentations though, because it's been a real disappointment.

I'm much more excited about Palm Valley, I think there is extra potential there with pay behind pipe and the fractures do seem to be recharging from the matrix. Best of all it's fully hooked up. Sales are low but that seems to be due mostly to lack of contracts. There is great potential for CTP I think if this APA pipeline goes ahead - particularly if they take the Moomba route, which would be the most logical in terms of connection point (although most expensive I believe).

On HC at the moment you frequently find hopeful holders of junior gas companies posting articles about gas shortages and the APA pipeline and how it will be a game changer (the implication being that their particular minnow is now a sure thing). But CTP is almost the only one of these juniors that actually has the ability to supply proven gas reserves with almost zero investment costs. If APA builds the pipeline, it's game on for CTP. Most of these other minnows have very little chance of going anywhere because of the enormous costs associated with 1) proving their gas reserves, 2) developing them and 3) hooking them up to the network.

CTP has none of those issues, and if for some reason the APA pipeline doesn't happen, they won't be any worse off than they are already, they will just have to look for markets in the NT, which they are already connected to.

Long story short: CTP: nice gas, shame about the oil.

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Psi,
"Long story short: CTP: nice gas, shame about the oil."

How can that conclusion be made on one unfinished well, without more drilling to know one way or other ?

Although from last number of announcements, as if we are just supposed to forget about the Surprise area, and accounts show not enough money in the kitty to drill again anyway, even though $10m raised for such purpose.

CTP Price at posting: 28.7¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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