I have always felt and still do that the Chinese still want this lock stock yet will not pay the going rate. Also trust has been dented many times in the past and especially under recent events that it I think it would be suicide for us to trust in their business or support in any way .
The only thing I would trust is a Chinese TO under statement of arrangement but I think FID is going to stonewall that . So I think they will be working on Felix no end . Problem is that the Germans are stumping up big cash and I believe Felix wants very very strong European connections . It’s their language after all.
The ME has money and are great investors and it makes absolute sense for them to maintain their dominant resource position . The USA have been quiet but they need drc resources massively too . If joe Biden gets in then this might trigger some USA action .
So in my view the Chinese have lost their place at the table when they had three years to acquire lock stock . Maybe they thought they would get it even cheaper by playing some sort of long game .
My view , Chinese need this resource or it’s a massive step back to their battery tech / ev plans for world dominance in the face of Tesla competition and the soon to be resurgent European ev offering based on solid state Li as a competitive direction. The mg and neo already on sale in Europe but won’t gain traction if the battery cost / quality not superior enough to outweigh the loyal demand base of vw , bmw , merc , Fiat , Renault , Citroen , Volvo etc
they need a massive , integrated Li resource . Maybe yibin is spec play for catl to see what they could get cheap and catl has other resource plans . But they surely won’t want this huge resource feeding Europe , ME or USA. No way . But they may just be stuck now . If so , it’s just deserts of the century for me . A good deal is where both parties treat the other with respect , integrity and fairness - makes the world a better place as nobody wants to get (or should be ) screwed.
So in conclusion my guess , and all this is only my guessing , there is some serious brinksmanship going on and NF backed by JC are strong enough to handle this.
Me, I’d wait another year and give it USA , ME and Europe .
just absolute guesswork
AVZ Price at posting:
7.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
