Not looking good at the moment.
Yes, gold price is down and junior miners are struggling in general but it hasn't been the gamechanger of an exploration season that was promised.
I reckon Kin is still on track for 1.5m ounces in the resource but probably not until the middle of next year. And there will need to be another capital raise before that, probably in the next three months, if they can't make progress on some kind of tolling arrangement with SBM. Even if they can, a raise is probably needed.
I still don't see why SBM would do a tolling deal like that, if it wants to buy Kin outright. It'll get more shares in the upcoming capital raise at a lower price. And if wants to take Kin out, it welcomes a lower share price. At the current level, even 15 cents a share could be enough to convince a lot of shareholders to sell into a takeover bid. Good for short term investors but very frustrating for long termers.
If Delphi takes the offer, that's probably what happens. I'm pretty sure that this wasn't the plan but the Harmanis sale of shares has been bad for the remaining shareholders.
Somehow Kin needs to create some interest, either with a more compelling discovery or some corporate activity that flushes out a suitor other than SBM. Maybe Genesis Minerals will show an interest, as they seem to be intent on building their own plant nearby. Kin's ounces could help them to get into mid-tier more quickly?
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