MNB 1.64% 6.0¢ minbos resources limited

Despite the DFS for the phosphate project being due within the...

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    Despite the DFS for the phosphate project being due within the next two weeks, the imminent shipping of long lead items for the phosphate project and the fact that the phosphate project will be in production well before the green ammonia project, the company chose to discuss the green ammonia project first and then the phosphate project in the annual report and the same was clear in the chairman's letter. That's saying something.
    It seems that the green ammonia is considered the larger, more valuable project and I do recall Lindsay calling the phosphate project the smaller project in a recent video interview. So if the phosphate project comes out with a NPV of say A$400 mill (approx 5 times the current mc), then I will consider the combined projects to likely be worth over A$1 billion in NPV (more than ten times the current mc).

    Then there's this;
    "Key to Capanda’s success is the concessional hydroelectric power price Minbos has negotiated with RNT-EP, Angola’s electricity network operator. Delivering a weighted average cost of power of US $0.011/kwh, our power concession is 90% cheaper than Australian power grid pricing and more than 55% cheaper than the long-term natural gas price."

    I remember seeing reference to the claim that MNB's power is more than 55% cheaper than gas prices but I didn't realise that it was referring to the long term gas price. I thought it was some nearer term gas price. Being 55% cheaper than the long term gas price is a much bigger advantage than I realised. It pretty much guarantees the economic advantages of the green ammonia project over any other, not just at times of unusually high gas prices, but always.
    I.e., as investors we don't need to regularly check if gas prices are remaining high to make sure of our competitive edge. We keep it even if gas prices eventually revert to a long term price - and that seems a long way off anyway.

    I feel very comfortable with my investment here and extremely confident of multiples of upside in the very near term.
    Last edited by chuk: 30/09/22
 
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