Assuming a successful MDA, re-read the last quarterly regards the project proper
- Now proposing a two phase development – Phase One is 90,000t/a vs 1,500,000t/a for Phase Two
- That’s just 6% - almost a pilot plant?
- Done to reduce capex but no indication what that capex might be
- Also done to match available power supply – are there not more recent plans from Malawi government to upgrade said supply and if so does this yet again influence GBE in scaling of Phase One?
- Refining to be done in Namibia but using a newer (higher capex but lower opex) chlorination process
- Has the advantage to extracting more products – uranium/zirconium and iron plus the main niobium/tantalum
- Phase One design to be complete Q3-2023 (assume end of quarter) to level to support a capital raise for mine/refinery construction – not clear if this is PFS or DFS level?
- Aiming for production in Q3-2024 so just a year from raising funds to production and revenue – seems optimistic even for such a small plant?
- One common method of guesstimating MCAP is as a % of project NPV – with GBE maybe sitting at 25% of Phase One NPV + 10% of Phase Two NPV reflecting progress towards each?
- But whilst we may be able to estimate Phase One and Phase Two revenues, the capex for each is a complete mystery given changes to design and refining strategy, so no feel for capex impact on NPV’s
- Fair to say though that A$36M market cap is a steal if the MDA drops as we expect and that GBE are as advanced with their level of planning/short term financing and information flow as @chokdee hopes
- In regard to that information flow, what worries me the most is how GBE will fund itself from end Jan to end Q3-2023 when FID and a source of funding for the Phase One build is done
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