I do agree with a lot of what you have said but I do not think...

I do agree with a lot of what you have said but I do not think we are returning to Great Depression or GFC scenarios. There is still a lot of pentup funds unspent. It might be that they are in the wrong demographic to alleviate the problem but I believe that it will mitigate it to some extent. The boomers in particular (ie the Bank of Mum & Dad or even Grandma & Grandpa BMD) are still holding a lot of uncommitted money. If you check with brokers you would find that there are quite a lot of loans propped up by BMD during refinance. If that is milked as well then I would be more inclined to consider the possibilities which you set out. During the GFC which was a quite different cause but with similar effects the severity of the downturn from a market point of view was more than 50% corrected between 27th Feb 2009 when the ASX was 3296 and 31st Dec 2009 when it was 4882. Like it did not flatline for 2-3 years. I think the current still bouyant housing market and the lack of supply together with the industry inability to provide that supply will continue to keep prices above any rock-bottom scenarios we might see predicted. Outside of that I think we are on the same page - particularly regarding TWD resilience.