"notional benefit of the Naif facility"... not worried about...

"notional benefit of the Naif facility"... not worried about non-cash items, and expected operations post-development to lean on lease assets instead of buying operating assets outright, though the outcome is still 'borrow-use-repay-depreciate' same as if they borrowed more cash purchased outright in the first place. Same with the BOO power plant... an exercise in reducing pre-production capex and deferring that to higher opex, something many junior developers do.

Way I see it is the capex is largely spent, some more has been earmarked via last CR to sort out problems, +/- contractor claims and insurance payouts. Bottom line is they have a certain amount of time to prove they can rectify issues and hit targets. Much ink has been spilt on HC discussing the DMU feed units (150% of 3000tph ore feed requirements over 3xDMU units says 50% spare capacity and totally doable given a decade of DMU experience and free-running, low-slime sands), WCP, MSP etc in the context of 'can Coburn hit design production'... and the consensus of substantiated analysis was that it's certainly technically feasible (though MSP recoveries may be a stretch). No reason to suspect lenders and brokers right through the financing stage, including multiple experts well above my league, thought otherwise but went ahead and funded Coburn anyway... that doesn;t make any sense.

Trouble happens when you get into a deposit and some things turn out not to be as planned. Equipment and infra breakdowns and poor design, piss-poor mine planning, understaffed and inexperienced operators, tailings water issues etc are all physical problems with solutions. Ore body problems like too much slime to recovery HM, incorrect grade or VHM estimation, physical impediments to meeting production throughput are all possible long-term flaws without solutions that downgrade the mine's value. It will take time to find out what problems can be rectified, what problems can't, and what the final SteadyState final product production and costs are...

Right now, STA is being smashed because despite LG's typical over-cooked BS about problems been fixed and forecast to strongly improve over Sep Qtr, it seems that July-August has seen no to little improvement. Simple case of not delivering to BS guidance = share price fall. Risks rise, wow we wait and hope that LG's BS only pushed back ramp-up recovery by 2-3 months, and there are no long-term flaws to downgrade cash generation and valuation. Management's credibility is shredded imo, in every sense and aspect of their job and communications...

The set-up said sell the CR given a 3 month wait for Sep Qtr figures and LG's penchant for ridiculous spin and BS about performance vs reality (watch the Diggers presso for a laugh). Only a good recovery by Aug would settle nerves and attract buyers into the 'recovery-rampup bounce', which was a low probability play unless you were a LG believer. I wasn't, I said to stay away from the SPP for those reasons, but couldn't bring myself to take the loss of exiting 18c in case thigs were actually on the mend quickly.

The late Aug Ilminte shipment of only 6000t was another reason to stop-out, but again I could only sell down a third on the hope I was wrong for some reason (losses are hard to pull the trigger on unless you;re sure). Similar story with the Ann Rep, but the price was 15c bid by that time and so you;re wondering if the disappointment has already been priced in, so only sell another third. 'Investing' in developers instead of trading with tight stops is a tough play without some inside help. The re-rate upside is generally less than expected if everything goes right, the downside is higher if things go wrong, and things are much more likley to go wrong than go right over the ramp-up period and even beyond. Mugs game really...

So here we are, with nothing material said by the company yet the market is making a new stand at 12.5c after the unofficial downgrade on delayed ramp-up recovery. Can STA monetise Tanzania and help buy time to reach steadystate production and Coburn Stage 2 expansion if things drag more than even the brokers estimation (market now assume LG's guidance is a joke)? how long to reach steadystate production, or is part of the share price crash to do with permanent flaws not fixable that downgrade steadystate production? Only some are aware of exactly what's going on, and that uncertainty/risk if nothing else is why the price has crashed. LG will be working the phones now and moving forward... hopefully there is money to be made from frontrunning material improvements in the future instead of just losses to avoid.

GLTAH