Not earth shattering but my takeaways:
1. Some clarity on finance?: Is this the first time we've had a company announcement explain the delay in finance - (DFC legal due diligence has halted while the UAE financing entity situation is worked out)? I'm not sure. I was working on that being speculation to date; but if confirmed, then I think it's marginally a positive thing, especially in the context of these words "advisor Cygnum Capital (formerly Lion’s Head Global Partners) is advising Lepidico for a strategic collaboration on the KEZAD chemical plant with an Abu Dhabi state owned organisation. There continues to be strong support from KEZAD and its parent ADP for the Phase 1 lithium conversion plant, which represents an enabler for further direct foreign investments in EV supply chain developments within Abu Dhabi.". You could argue that wrangling over the financing entity was a bad omen, however, KEZAD is state owned so it certainly doesn't seem to be a sour issue.
As an aside I had thought Cygnum had a large shareholding but I don't see them in the T20 so maybe I am wrong.
2. A bit of further upside potential on Caesium and Rubidium? All Caesium is now subject to LOIs or term sheets and "Caesium demand has grown to the point where upper volume limits have needed to be reduced in some instances. It is also encouraging that demand is starting to be seen for the supply of rubidium chemicals in commercial quantities... ...Lepidico is also limited by confidentiality agreements with third parties as to the information it can disclose pertaining to these markets. However, it is evident that caesium prices have appreciated significantly over the past two years..." We know that Caesium and Rubidium are pretty hefty contributors to the bottom line and were priced at US$25,000 per tonne for Caesium (P1 produces 235t p.a, equating to roughly $6m per annum) and US$12,500 a tonne for Rubidium (P1 produces 1,400 tonnes p.a, equating to roughly $17.5m) in the November 2022 DFS update, or 17% average EBITDA of US135m per annum over ten years.
So assuming that the substantive work on the updated DFS is now 12 months old, we can assume that the first 12 months of this 'significant' price increase for Caesium is priced into the uDFS economics. But not the most recent 12 months. Although Rubidium prices are not explicitly mentioned, the uses for the two chemicals strongly overlap and given emerging demand for 'commercial quantities' I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Rubidium prices may also have moved upward in the last 12 months. Who knows how the prices have moved, and I'm also sure we've had more capex inflation since November 2022, but hopefully these price movements defray some of that likely movement in capex.
Agree that remuneration seems to have jumped a fair bit, partly explained by having three new line items, Hans, Timo and Roland. Benedicta was also appointed late in last FY. However, Rem has jumped 25% between FY22 and 23 for longer tenured directors in some places. Would prefer they get a big pay day once they land the beast but not worth jumping up and down over.
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