NOV 3.85% 5.0¢ novatti group limited

To be fair .. the building of an international payment...

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    To be fair .. the building of an international payment processing system (technology/licencing/compliance) that processed over $4 billion worth of transactions in the 22-23 financial year - Is a big deal. It is not easily reproducible.

    Yes .. NOV not currently making a profit. Some background fintech information to read while we wait... and wait .. and wait ...

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/julianteicke/2023/06/21/how-fintech-startups-can-pivot-to-profitability-despite-any-recession/?sh=146143963dc9
    https://www.altfi.com/article/10164_fintech-is-slowly-becoming-profitable
    https://www.bcg.com/press/3may2023-fintech-1-5-trillion-industry-by-2030

    I am also a substantial shareholder, like many here, and down considerably on my initial purchase price. I agree Directors fees should be held (or reduced) until/when cashflow is positive.

    Why do I think the situation for NOV has changed in the past six months. Short version - Novatti have stated that the payment processing system is completed and the macro-economic environment is more positive. I also like the idea (we will see where this goes) of making the operations more simplified and cross-selling of the various products.

    1. International students are required to return to Australia for study - a large part of Novatti's prior business.

    https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/what-pandemic-australian-international-education-hits-new-high
    https://www.sbs.com.au/language/hindi/en/article/visa-update-2023-international-students-will-have-to-show-higher-savings-for-australian-visa/1vf33r8bj

    2. Chinese tourists are returning to pre-pandemic levels.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-25/chinese-tourists-return-ads-group-travel-resume/102891772

    3. ATX - yes went backwards from prior year and has resumed growth (look deep into the lastest Annual accounts).

    4. The Reckon-Novatti payment agreement was only confirmed in April 2022. I would expect traction from 23-24 FY on, where this JV starts to meaningfully contribute to sales income.

    5. Revenue +ve growth in Q4FY22 at $10.3m (prior Q3 was $8.9). Gross margin 51% up from 35% in Q4 FY22.

    6. The long awaited RADI (due to Covid and government reworking of legislation) has been issued - November 2022. (From the recent Annual accounts - approximately 10% of IBOA was sold for $3m. Full Valuation is anyone's guess - Depends?) Perhaps some reasonable income contribution for NOV from IBOA processing fees at some stage in the medium term.

    As previously stated .. we have been told the Nov system is now build with redundancy in place and most of prior Novatti processing has moved across to their own system - the current Q1 will indicate the which way Income/Expenses trend going forward ...

    Until then .. Keep your Nerve ! This is fintech stock with risk attached. I'm hoping for lift-off soon. Lol ..

    Cheers Anton.
    Last edited by Anton: 03/10/23
 
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