Production in the first two years will primarily come from the Ross area, and Kendrick production will begin in 2027.
Capital Costs: Revised capital expenditures have been estimated using updated information. The accuracy level for plant costs is +/-5%, and a 10% contingency is applied. Wellfield development costs have been updated, with different accuracy levels for Ross and Kendrick. Overall capital expenditure contingency is set at 5.5%.
Ross and Kendrick Project Level CAPEX Requirements:
Total LoM CAPEX: US$285.8M
Remaining CAPEX to 1st Production: US$53.4M
Process Plant: US$19.3M
Wellfield: US$25.4M
General: US$5.1M
Contingency: US$3.6M
Ramp-up Stage CAPEX: US$17.4M
LoM Wellfield Replacement and Sustaining CAPEX: US$215.0M
Operating Costs: Operating costs are estimated with an accuracy range of +/-5%. Major operating cost over the LoM is sulfuric acid, with prices set for the coming years. Total OPEX (including Restoration): US$346.8M Direct Operating Cost (excluding Restoration): US$21.69 per pound U3O8 Total OPEX (including Restoration): US$23.49 per pound U3O8
Project Level Economic Outcomes: The Project is expected to reach positive cash flow in the 2026 financial year.
Key outcomes include: LoM Project Revenue: US$988M Average Sales Price: US$67.07/lb Average Price for Uncontracted Production: US$72.62/lb Operating Cashflow (before tax): US$258.2M NPV8: US$116.2M IRR: 26% AISC: US$42.46/lb AIC: US$50.27/lb
Customer and Forward Sales Considerations: 34% of the LoM production from Ross and Kendrick is under existing contracts. The rest is expected to be sold at an average of US$72.62/lb U3O8. After the production delay decision, Peninsula discussed delivery implications for 2023 and 2024 with its customers, who showed flexibility and support.
Overview of Changes from 2022 DFS:
The information and targets are based on the 2022 DFS but updated for the revised LoM plan.
The DFS studied the viability of converting the mining method of the Ross and Kendrick production areas.
The revised LoM plan is based on the same concept but updated for various changes, such as project schedule and costs.
Existing mining facilities have been re-configured for low pH compatibility.
Cost estimates are sourced from various experiences, including existing operations.
While the overall CAPEX and OPEX remain consistent, the assumptions regarding production timelines, rates, and revenue have changed.
All costing and revenue assumptions have been updated to account for inflationary pressures.
Comparison between 2022 DFS and Revised LoM Outcomes:
The Uranium ISR Plant Flowrate Capacity was reduced from 6,250 GPM in 2022 DFS to 5,000 GPM in the Revised LoM.
Dry Yellowcake Production Capacity remains consistent at 2.0 Mlbs p.a.
Estimated Production Operating Life decreased by one year.
The average recovered grade slightly increased from 76 mg/L to 77 mg/L.
The estimated U3O8 LoM Production increased slightly to 14.8 Mlbs.
LoM Project Revenue increased from US$895.2M to US$988.0M, mainly due to a higher average sales price.
The NPV8 decreased slightly from US$124.8M to US$116.2M.
TheIRR saw a significant decrease from 43% to 26%.
Both the All In Sustaining Costs (AISC) and All In Costs (AIC) increased.
Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss and Other Comprehensive Income: Revenue: 2023: US$40.4M Gross Profit: 2023: US$1.78M 2022: US$3.05M Loss for the year: 2023: US$3.548M 2022: US$4.619M Total comprehensive loss for the year: 2023: US$3.847M 2022: US$5.056M
Consolidated Statement of Financial Position: Total Current Assets: 2023: US$35.173M 2022: US$29.595M Total Non-Current Assets: 2023: US$74.846M 2022: US$58.590M Total Assets: 2023: US$110.019M 2022: US$88.185M Total Liabilities: 2023: US$18.915M 2022: US$14.746M Net Assets: 2023: US$91.104M 2022: US$73.439M
Consolidated Statement of Changes in Equity: Total Equity at the end of the year: 2023: US$91.104M 2022: US$73.439M
Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows: Net cash provided by operating activities: 2023: US$5.030M 2022: US$2.043M Net cash used in investing activities: 2023: US$12.184M 2022: US$0.990M Net cash provided by financing activities: 2023: US$21.069M 2022: US$0.106M (negative) Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the financial year: 2023: US$21.455M 2022: US$7.582M
Key Takeaways:
The company's revenue significantly increased in 2023 compared to 2022, but they also faced an increase in their losses.
The company's assets grew significantly in 2023, primarily in the non-current assets category.
The equity position improved in 2023 due to increased issuance of shares.
The company had a positive net cash flow from operating activities, but also had significant outflows from investing activities, indicating substantial investment in assets.
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2023 were significantly higher than in 2022, indicating better liquidity and cash position for the company.
Corporate Funding Requirements: Between July 2023 and August 2025, the total projected expenditure is US$120.1M. The company projects a net additional funding need of US$95M to achieve sustainable positive cash flows. This funding can be obtained progressively over two years and may come from various sources, including equity and debt instruments. The Board believes the required funding will be available due to existing infrastructure, a successful track record of raising financing, favorable existing long-term contracts, and the potential of the Lance Project.
Land and Mineral rights acquisition: Peninsula acquired a 640-acre mineral lease, continuing an acquisition strategy spanning eight years. The company has now acquired about 4,140 acres, covering areas with identified uranium mineralization. The company possesses past drilling data and is preparing a JORC compliant initial Mineral Resource Estimate to be completed by the end of 2023.
Uranium Sales and Marketing: In the 2023 financial year, Peninsula sold 750,000 lbs of U3O8, compared to 450,000 lbs in the previous year. Sales details for 2022-2023: August 2022: 200,000 lbs at US$54.15/lb. October 2022: 50,000 lbs at US$45.06/lb. December 2022: 300,000 lbs at US$60.00/lb. March 2023: 200,000 lbs at US$55.51/lb. The sales were fulfilled using the company's strategic uranium reserve and on-market purchases. The strategic reserve stood at 200,000 lbs of U3O8 at the end of the financial year (down from 300,000 lbs the previous year). The total cash sales amounted to US$42.2M, averaging US$56.25/lb. However, the recognized accounting revenue was only US$40.4M due to derivative fair value movements in line with IFRS 9. As of 30 June 2023, the company's sale agreements stand at up to 4.95 Mlbs U3O8. The committed sales for the next years are detailed in Table 7, with a total of 4.8 Mlbs. The pricing for these sales varies, with an average price between US$44 and US$87/lb.
Outlook: The global demand for uranium is growing due to an increased focus on clean energy, and stockpiles are decreasing. The US in particular has a rising demand for domestically produced uranium concentrates, which is increasing the spot price. Peninsula's restart of production at Lance is well-timed with this rising demand and price. The company aims to restart production once it can handle end-to-end processing in-house, which is expected to align with a favorable uranium market. Peninsula is developing a funding strategy to establish itself as an independent producer. The company also plans to upgrade its resource base in 2024, though there are challenges related to drill rig availability.
PEN Price at posting:
13.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held