G'day @Mer,Thanks for the your note and thoughts.I'll...

G'day @Mer,

Thanks for the your note and thoughts.

I'll go through and answer what i know.

TankWeld - when they bought it, it was profitable. So to have a $750k loss for the group for the year means TankWeld is really profitable because they are carrying the Tech business. They are growing and tendering and it seems winning $10M plus projects. Working capital is what is needed here but remember they can make claim progress payments on contracts, so they don't have to fund the whole project, that's the client's job, just fund the spend between progress claims. Profit becomes free cash flow.

They now have funding arrangements so that they can tender the larger projects that are in their delivery sweet spot. Group should be profitable next year because TankWeld ownership is incentivised to grow the business through additional purchase payments if milestones are met. Those milestones will make PWN cashflow positive and profitable at the group level.

As for CSG clients, yes some will defer as long as they can but QGC and Shell are good corporate citizens so that is why they are first movers with the tech. I think that will be a brilliant Master Plan move in my opinion but time will tell.

As for modular, the commercial model is fund these from up front payments from clients and potentially working capital, remember $12m a pop making $5m per annum profit. Strategic partners, someone wants in, because QBS is now looking at a partnering roadshow. ESG Funds, Investors and the like can see the potential here and want in.

FEED is funded by the owner of the Downstream plant, that will be QGC, my guess about $12-15m for that over about 6-9 months because lots of pre-FEED work has already been done( FEED will be done by Worley with support from PWN). Build will be QGC cost, operate is up to QGC, may be Veolia or PWN if we have the capability. So the EPCM for the build should be awarded by QGC to Worley and PWN. Just guessing numbers but somewhere north of $100m.

Then when operational, PWN collects a royalty and from previous models we have seen it's about $100m a year and up to $330m a year if they go down the chemical tweak to the plant to produce Fluorine or Clorine ( i can't recall, would have to go back over the Master Plan.)

So if we get a FEED this side of Christmas, 6-9 for FEED, 6 months for FID then 18 months to build. That's 2027. Modular units can be operational way before then, they can probably produce these in house now at TankWeld in 12 weeks.

I'm prepared to stick it out. Research report says they are worth 8 cents now, with revenue of that ilk coming in in 2-3 years time, you do the valuations, well north of 10-20 cents. I'm prepared to get in on the ground floor and sit it out.

The above are all my calcs and opinions and always happy to listen to the contrarian view. So long as Bahay and Parkway execute their milestones, I'll be here in a big way.

Mr M.