15x FY 2025 EBITDA seems excessive... But would be nice..though...

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Avaricious

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13/09/22

16:43

Post #: 63676038
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Originally posted by jellyroll: ↑

??? That backlog is many orders .... not one. I think you are referring to the Phase III AD order from last year that was @$ 15 million over 4 years, so is about 10% of the backlog. You ask what is next, well the answer is more contracts. More of the same, lots more contracts, as the funding into CNS drug development will double over the next 3 years and on top of that you can add the migration of pencil and paper cognitive testing to digital testing, and we are only at the very start of the at process with penetration rates of less than 10% in current Ph I and Ph II CNS trials.

Then just for giggles you can add in the net cash pile which is currently US$ 26 million and will reach @ US$ 55 - US$60 million (based on current contracts) by 06/2025. This can be used for acquisitions or returned to shareholders.

Final possibility is one of the mega CROs decides it would be good to have a digital cognitive capability, as the market is shifting to decentralized trials and Cogstate and Cambridge Cognition are eating their lunch and they put in an offer. You would have to open that discussion at 15x FY 2025 EBITDA which should be @ US$27 million and then add back the net cash (US$55 million). So just for fun, let's see what that looks like. US$ 27million x 15 = US$ 405 million, to which we add the net cash US$ 405 million + US$ 55 million = US$ 460 million. Then we can convert this into AUD. US$460 million / 0.70 = AUD 657 million. Round down for costs so let's call it AUD 650 million .... you would not be looking at less than AUD 3.7 per share in my view. I also see substantial upside to that number both in terms of the revenue in the backlog but also to the multiple that the business could achieve. Obviously, a bit hypothetical as it assumes that Mr. Dolby and Mr. Myer would be interested in selling.

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15x FY 2025 EBITDA seems excessive... But would be nice..

though we have had several sporadic comms on this ticker and as i mentioned prior i had been awaiting pull back to re-enter; which did happen last week. But I do feel like CGS upper bounds is lower than you do. It isn't a billion dollar company or anything IMO

**Updated position*

Last edited by Avaricious: 13/09/22

CGS Price at posting: $1.46 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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