Really curious to get an update from the company (probably on 9/11/23, at AGM).
Reminder main data for FY 23 :
- revenues up by 5.7 m AUD, only due to price increase (stable volume for the number of pearls sold),
- all the increase of revenue went directly into their EBITDA, as SGA increase (+ 6 %) was offset by the decrease for cost of good sold (- 6 %).
Main assumptions for FY 24 at this stage :
- price per pearl has doubled (so far vs the average level of FY 23),
- no clear indication for volume of sales*,
- probable return to normal inflation for all their costs (as the decrease of cost of good sold was due to abnormal situation with covid).
So, unlike FY 23, all the revenue increase will not go directly to profit before tax, as it will be a bit offset by some cost increase.
Based on the auction figures for September, we know that Q1 24 revenues increased by at least 40 % yoy.
In fact, total Q1 24 sales were probably higher as they come also from other sources of sales (private sales, farm retail operations...).
Overall, we can estimate that revenues may double during H1 24, if we take the assumptions that the sales volume will be flat (in line with FY 23).
The profit increase should be even larger thanks to margin increase, as there is no reason to expect that cost inflation will be as high as price inflation.
* only indication : the number of pearl sold during September auction was 50 % of the total number of pearls sold during Q1 23 (147,259).
At this stage, there is no reason to expect a large decrease for their volume of sales, as there is a large demand and last indications for harvest were still good (the number of pearls harvested decreased by 2 % during FY 23 vs FY 22). The company mentioned a decrease for the pearl size, but nothing significant regarding the total size of their production.
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(20min delay)