Just to come back on the valuation metrics, a fair value would...

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    Just to come back on the valuation metrics, a fair value would probably be between 1 x and 2 x book value, given the estimated ROE of around 20 % on a cycle.
    This large range depends on what cost of equity we are taking : using COE of 10 % justifies a P/B of 2, while a COE of 20 % justifies a P/B of 1.
    ATP uses a COE of 20 % in its annual report, while I tend to use a COE of around 10 % for a company like Atlas.

    Taking the most conservative assumption that ATP should be valued at 1 x book value, we have also to take into account the increase of their book value : + 33 % in FY 22 and + 42 % in FY 23.
    As the pricing effect should enable another significant increase of earnings (and book value) for FY 24, there is a large upside potential for the share price thanks both the expected increase of P/B and book value.
    Of course based on 2 main assumptions : flat volume of sales and pricing remaining at today's level.
    Last edited by saintex: 25/09/23
 
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14.0¢
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