A starting question would be how did they calculate a future five year average taxable profit of only $71 million?
The taxable profit in 2024 was $120 million and given likely higher production and $A prices in FY25 the profit is likely to be much higher this year.
If you average the last 2 years taxable profits you get $67.3 million which is at least closer to the actual number used for the forecast. Extending the average back over more years does not help.
Given proved and probable reserves give a 10 year mine life they could also extend the five year period for estimating profits if they wanted to do so.
There is also the question of what other deductions apart from the fractional tax losses there could be from taxable profits as these vary markedly from year to year.
However on your calculation the 5 year average needs to be above the current year profit to generate a more substantial tax deduction relative to the FY 25 year profit. As that seems unlikely your conclusion that some tax will be payable in FY25 seems to hold. Exactly how much would seem to depend on the assumptions used by the Board.
It might help if someone asked at the AGM if the Board expects the company to actually pay tax in the current year and does that mean franked dividends are an option in future years.
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