To discuss, what can we expect from BY 24.The consensus for...

To discuss, what can we expect from BY 24.
The consensus for sales are 85 Mill. austr. Dollar and
Net profit is 33,5 Mill. austr. Dollar.

I expect the company to have almost 200 Mill. on the bank,
which results in an enterprise value of 500 Mill. austr. Dollars.

What I miss is the discussion of the Vitiligo Phase III study cost.
On the Sydney Investor presentation total study cost were qunatified
with 77 mill. dollars. So we have to take into account that a bigger
portion 10-15 Mill for the BY 24. So the net profit estimates could
be to high, because of the study cost for Phase III Vitiligo.

On the other hand: Pre tax profit for the Calendar Year 2023
was around 50 Mill. austr. Dollar, if we exclude more than 10 Mill.
share based cost, than pre tax profit was 60 Mill. aust. Dollar.
Excl. share based cost is the normal reporting standard in the
US (Non-GAAP) and Europe (Non-IFRS).

On this basis we are evaluated with an EV/EBITDA of factor
8. I have never seen a such moderate evaluation for a growing biotech.

When we meet expectations, and I pick two coverages from June/July 24,
Bell potter (only take EPP into account) with target price of 22,5 Dollar and
Kalliwoda with price target of 48 Dollar (with moderat contributions of XP, VP, Vitiligo
and EPP), then we get price target of 35 Dollar in the middle.

My comment: A lot of disappointments are reflected in the current share price.
We need one or two catalysts, so that we up with the share price. One can be
the BY results. On the other hand, room for disappointments should be limited,
even in the case phase III Study should take longer. Many other positive catalysts,
we are waiting for can lead to higher evaluations and investor reap the fruits for
their patient.

BR