SDL is up against the majors at a much higher cost of ore delivered to china because of the proposed US$16/t infrastructure levy by Cameroon on stage1 to repay the US$5b plus loan and interest. Any glut in ore ore will most likely see this project not making much money for some time. The majors are delivering 62% plus ore to china around US$30 whereas SDL project for stage 1 its assumed to be around US$28/t plus the levy of US$16/t , total of US$44/t.
China is increasing its use of scrap and its future growth is slowing down so several hundred million less tonnes of iron ore is needed. Its likely a glut of iron ore will be around by the time this project gets up imo. SDL most likely end up with around 30-35% of the project equity imo after being given US$450m for its share of mine development and working capital until cashflow positive production post 4-5 years of start development, this will most likely value SDL with 21b shares on issue at around 1c or around US$430m at cuurrent exchange rates.