ADX yet again a groundbreaker.After being around the oil business for more than three decades, I learn new tricks.
Valuation of reserves is usually done on a PV10 basis, and in fact this is the standard for US company filings under SEC rules.
Of course, investors in risky projects are always looking for returns higher that the 10%.For the first time in my life I see an oil company (ADX) value their reserves based on a PV8, so 8% discount rate.
Who are they fooling?!?
And they do this is a 10% inflation world!!
There is no doubt they found oil, there is no doubt they are producing oil, but after this I have tons of doubts if this will ever attain the minimum measure of success for investors: cash in my pocket.
Best estimate is that cashflow will help meet debt payments this year.
They have to go to investors to be able to get the capex done (for 2P reserves EUR 73mn), so get ready for further dilution.
Seems to be a hobby stock: A constant cost, and unlikely to sell hobby outcome in the future for a profit. A bit like model railways, fishing or sailing, ... but it does make for good stories at the pub
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