$400 million is a very rough estimate of the total cost figuring 8 years (2020-2028) at more than $4 million per month cash spent. I don't have the energy to go through all of the expenditures and the CardioCel financial history would obviously figure in as well.
As far as how much money we need from here: the opex cash burn is currently $4.2 million per month and I think Mar 2028 is a reasonable date for FDA approval, so 54 months at $4.7 million is $253 million in cash needed to get to approval. Subtracting around $90 million in option exercises and roughly $37 million in reimbursements for DurAVR's used in trials leaves $126 million. Adding another $15 million in financing costs and assorted expenses gives us $136 million needed to be raised from now to get to commercialization, which would require issuing 5.6 million shares at average of $25. That would take us to around 28 million shares fully diluted but to be conservative I expect 30 million shares fully diluted when we get to profitability.
With a DurAVR cost of $60,000 at commercialization and a future 30 million fully paid shares at a p/s multiple of 10, there are less than 1,000 future DurAVR sales currently baked into the share price. So the stock is probably very cheap if you think more than 1,000 DurAVRs will eventually be sold after FDA approval.
That's my projection but I'm just some dude on the internet.
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