Kashkari’s and Waller’s comments that turn a fundamental axiom of western bond investors on its head (that more debt is now INFLATIONARY, not DEFLATIONARY) suggests that the Fed knows this, and if they know it, then presumably Yellen knows it, and Washington policymaking elites know it (remember, Kashkari worked closely with former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson in the GFC.) I.e., Kashkari and Waller just told us that the Fed is cornered, in eloquent Fed-speak…what they said is “US Federal debt levels require sustained negative real rates.”
Wait till DXY cracks below 100, then the real commodities BULL begins. Early 2000s on steroids!
KASHKARI: IF US DEBT CONTINUES TO CLIMB, NEUTRAL RATE WILL CLIMB -Bloomberg, 10/14/24
For me, the biggest risk to r-star down the road is unsustainable fiscal policy. -Fed Governor Christopher Waller, 10/14/24 (via CS)
NWC Price at posting:
2.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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