ANZ 1.28% $28.51 anz group holdings limited

ANZ’s share price has fallen 3%, with the other major banks...

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    ANZ’s share price has fallen 3%, with the other major banks ending flat on average.
    I started buying in at $25 because arguably their books of Australian home loans to growth and finding a niche for the Australian Commercial division will bode well... ANZ has made some good acquisitions in the past like NewZealandBanking, although other more tangential acquisitions for ANZ and other banks have been less successful wealth, insurance, etc.
    ANZ is trading around net tangible asset (NTA) value and any capital raising required would be dilutive to EPS.
    A non-operating holding company (NOHC) structure would likely limit capital required but timing on the proposed NOHC is uncertain.....to say the least.

    There is also some potential positives from the integration of ANZ’s business bank with MYOB, but we the market as I remain wary, especially with any pay-offs being long-dated....do I trust KKR...HELL NO...if ever there were barbarians at the gate...my god...
    This is arguably even more the case when the business being acquired is not a banking business per se, and so offers no synergies and or requires success in areas such as customer acquisition. Furthermore, MYOB has a strong competitor in the form of Xero (XRO, Accumulate) and, while the Barbarians have invested in the business during its ownership, it still likely lags behind Xero in the degree to which its customers have cloud-based solutions.

    Existing business in unsecured products, such as ANZ’s GoBiz, are linked into Xero and it is not immediately obvious that ANZ needs to ‘own’ rather than ‘partner’.

    So what about Capital implications – At its 1H22 result, ANZ announced it intended to lodge a formal application to establish an NOHC structure, creating distinct banking and non-banking groups within the organisation.
    This NOHC structure would provide additional capital flexibility, including potentially reducing the size of equity funding required.

    Potential benefits – Don’t dismiss that there are theoretically some good reasons for integrating MYOB with a business bank. These include avenues for acquiring some of MYOB’s large customer base, as well as potentially fending off moves from platforms such as Xero and MYOB to enter the lending space in the future.

    ANZ’s reasonable NIM leverage to rising interest rates on a broadly flat cost profile. So for me to average down the valuation is attractive, given a significant discount to peers.

    Over the long term I think there will be fewer headwinds than for some other peers due to lower exposure to competitive pressures on mortgage margins, how ever if MYOB is thrown into the mix..we are yet to see what becomes of tat case scenario... While mortgage growth has been disappointing of late, I think a gradual improvement in line with improved processing efficiencies will suffice to the cost cutting mantra they keep banging on about.
    Having said that capital management has been put on hold, but may emerge as a theme in FY23/24.

    This is an elongated answer as to why I am averaging down to the point where I will ride this pricing ratio down as long as it takes as apposed to any of the other 4 Pillars.
    Last edited by Red Dirt Dan: 15/07/22
 
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$28.51
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0.360(1.28%)
Mkt cap ! $85.79B
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$28.25 $28.57 $28.21 $94.86M 3.329M

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No. Vol. Price($)
5 35313 $28.50
 

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Price($) Vol. No.
$28.51 28000 1
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