Delphi I fear that your numbers are wrong here. When focusing on debt in the retirement or aged care sector, ignore the RADs they get funded by incoming residents as turnover continues (around 10pc pa) and RADs don't accrue interest. Its the interest bearing liabilities you need to focus on. I've got no idea where you get 7x EBITDA debt levels. It's actually 3.6times. And then, when the settlement proceeds of the Gasworks sale this goes lower, and the sale proceeds of the other non retirement assets continues this goes lower and then continued sales of retirement units (hundreds of them) over the next 12 months debt falls very materially. The other post also correcting you noting the 16.8pc debt to asset measure is correct.
From an institutional real estate perspective this entity has quite low debt and also compared to other commercial players with lumpy assets, AOG's sources of liquidity are granular, regular, diversified and constant. This is a company that if it chooses to could start ammortising debt on a weekly basis. A commercial REIT can't do that.
Another factor to consider here is, given the limited list of peer group in Australia, how does AOG compare to offshore peers? Well my friend, debt levels of AOG are less than half of many peers offshore. In many cases one third of the debt used offshore. Why, you may ask, is that relevant? Because that's what is going to drive the end outcome here. Asian , Euro or North American retirement or social housing players that are steadily building global portfolios are going to either A) take AOG out or B) capital partner in private equity vehicles large portions of its portfolio. Either way, the outcome is highly highly accretive to AOG shareholders.
You see, you're just trying to scare long term holders so you can profit more from your short position. And I would not boast about your corporate banking experience when you can't even get your debt figures right.....
My call on this and what I'm doing is I see this as the cheapest institutional grade real estate portfolio in this country at the moment. It's balance sheet is in EXCELLENT shape, it's got granular regular inflows of equity from its property sales to reduce debt, it can sell entire village assets as well whenever it chooses. Its got multiple levers to pull including JV entity investments into pools of assets.
Demographics drives everything and the looming RC has now caused a SLOWING IN SUPPLY of retirement unit developments. The peak of the baby boomer population wedge retired 3 years ago. We've got 15 years ahead of us with demand growing on a WEEKLY basis just as we head into a 3 year period of reduced new supply.
AOG is dirt cheap. It's going to get taken out or alternatively turn itself into a capital partner model with global institutional pension fund investors. The returns it can offer anyone buying at these levels is exceptional. You're on the wrong side of the coin here.
AOG Price at posting:
$1.54 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
