ok I will bite back (like to keep my posts to a minimum but when it's warranted will add further)
market cap of AOG today $903m.
number of total retirement units 15,636.
add $600m debt (ignoring gaslight sale and other non retirement sales which reduce debt materially) results in enterprise value $1.5 billion. Post non retirement sales enterprise value remains the same and debt reduces.
buying AOG today you're paying $95k per retirement unit.
Ahem....their market retail value ranges from $300k to $800k.
just focusing on the Melbourne and Sydney suburbs I see....Toorak, Mosman, Balwyn, Bayview, Avalon, Hawthorn, Lindfield, St.Ives, Hampton, Bentliegh, Kew, Northcote ... and I've mixed the two largest cities suburbs up for fun.
in Brisbane Ascot, Carindale .....
c'mon seriously..... this is dirt dirt cheap
AND it's completely wrong to price a retirement business like a residential developer business. Imagine a business where you get to develop an asset, sell it at a profit, manage it ongoing, and then get a repeated management fee every 5 to 8 years when it's onsold. Retirement development is far far superior to residential development as it has an ongoing income stream.
and portfolio plus is absolutely correct , AOG exposure to high care aged care is tiny.
AOG is being priced today at recession pricing, yet we are one of the wealthiest demographics in the world......
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