Had a chance to dig into this and the refinement/processing...

Had a chance to dig into this and the refinement/processing bonus for Makuutu's output is even greater than I realised (granted many of you probably spotted this but others like me, perhaps not). Instead of simply unlocking the remaining payability of our current basket (increase from ~70% to 100%), there's also additional material outputs to sell to bump up revenue by a further 40% from Makuutu... Which is literally double the revenue.

Below this on the same page they have a separate point saying (with more detail in the last 3 pages of the presentation) that they hypothesize Scandium demand increases combined with an established global supply could unlock a 20-25% bump

Now obviously the OPEX would increase I suspect with added refinery operations and I don't know what that increase looks like, but lets take a look at some basic calcs. And please call me out where I've gone wrong because before I've even written what's to come, I'm already not believing it in my head.

Lets start with basket price. Using their update in the presentation we are looking at $102.55/kg. For a bit of added value here I'll repost my chart to show how this has increased over the last 9 months relative to the share price:


Looking at a pre-tax revenue of $202m USD at 75% payability, 3,800 tonnes throughput and OPEX of $90m

Refinement factors and impacts:
(again stressing this doesn't consider added refining OPEX costs)

Factor 1: 100% payability
$102.55 * 3.8m kg - $90m
= $299.6m USD pre-tax revenue

Factor 2: Added value unlocked metals and alloys

$142 * 3.8m kg - $90m
= $449.5m USD pre-tax revenue

Factor 3: Scandium (potentially $63m+ revenue p/a from page 47)
you can do this maths
= $512.5m USD pre-tax revenue

$359m USD post-tax

$481m AUD post-tax



Alrighty, now you can probably see why I'm a little bit skeptical of my own understanding of all of this... And it doesn't consider any recycling application of the refinement tech or revenue from any input from 3rd party mines to the processing plant.

Someone bring me back to Earth if I've been snagged on a hypothetical rocket please!

Corri