I've been in this stock from the start, attracted by the small original share issue, and was crowing about my entry position for sometime, but I got that wrong, becos I was too excited about Apollo Hill and expected higher grades and higher sp quicker - my own poor judgement no one else to blame.
However, as the price slowly started to slip I've had to buy more stock than I expected to keep equity, and still happy to do so,
firstly becos I still like the ground we have and its potential, and
secondly I still have great respect for Ian's management.
thirdly the bang per buck Ian achieved in drilling has now been proven.
But putting all that aside, IMO and still looking as long term as I can at my age (which is not too far) regardless of the grades, its hopefully the economics of the shallow pit and success of the heap leach treatment and how the capital is raised that will either work or not, that will see how the share price reacts.
I appreciate all the estimates and calculations made above, its the unknown factors that unexpectedly pop up that worry me, which is why I rarely invest in underground mines becos of previous bad experiences with unexpected costs, but regardless how anyone calculates the share price, it will come back to the basics of timing, how much capital, when, and how much production and profit is achieved.
In these early stages of production even if the heap leaching is viable, it will be either the Debt or Issue of shares that keeps the price in a relatively tight band, after that is bedded down it will again be the need of further expenditure on drilling again. But don't get too disheartened by this, becos all of this expense becomes the grounding for a future ramp up for hopefully more self funded production & exploration on our own ground.
IMO Its at that time,that the shares start to build in price becos of maturity - known cost of production, better grades, additional proven reserves and equal or better gold price, if all that falls in place, with NO HIDDEN COSTS that should start to be reflected in the share price. The small cap end of the market is mostly driven by speculation, because regulation and due diligence keeps the big corporate funds out of this end of the market. Like it or not, its punters like us that drive this end of mining stocks and at present most people are being very economically cautious and sitting on their hands, hence little movement in many small miners, no matter how promising small goldies might look.
Successful production after capital raising will be our next sp driver - IMO still a fair time off, but being patient will be rewarded - this is good dirt to be in.
Hope it happens quicker, but DYOR and good health and good fortune to you all.
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