BOT 0.00% 38.0¢ botanix pharmaceuticals ltd

You are completely missing the point and focusing too much on...

  1. 289 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 92
    You are completely missing the point and focusing too much on the timing, when you should be focusing on the risk/decision making to exercise, as they were not obligated to exercise the options.

    They have agreed to buy shares at ~13c for which we are assuming they do not have the money to pay for (if they did they could get more benefit from buying on market). They can currently sell those shares on market for only ~12c. Regardless of whether they have to pay the 13c now or later they still have to fund the acquisition out of the sale of those shares. As it stands now if they were required to sell those shares to fund the exercise of the options they would be out of pocket 1c for every share.

    BOT are expected to release results in the near term with the result that the SP is going to go up significantly or fall to ~2c. Essentially the person who exercised the options wins or loses based on those results.

    Which as highlighted previously, raises the question.. Why would that person enter into an obligation to pay 13c unless they were of the belief (or even had information that was suggestive) that results were going to cause the SP to go above 13c? The exercise is suggestive of people working in the company being confident of results. If they thought results were going to be bad they would not exercise the options, because at some point they do have to pay the exercise price. If results were going to be bad I and we had another acne on our hands I would be very surprised if someone were to agree to pay 13c for something they knew was going to be worth much less in two months time.

    If results are bad and the SP goes down to 2c that person will be out of pocket by approx. 11c per share with nothing to show for it.
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add BOT (ASX) to my watchlist
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.