Good morning
@Obe wan @bombersmadd @qball @beisha @cashcity et al,
Just to clarify the state of play with the oppies - with specific reference to the 120m options that were issued on the 2nd April 2020, and as per Obe wan's insert (extract of company announcement) in the replied to / above post and also
Proposed issue of securities (markitdigital.com) - my BTD understands and opines the following;
a) Pattos did not partake in this issue and therefore they have ZERO oppies to convert.
b) Lithium Plus was the main investor supporting this issue, they appear to be cashed up & playing the long game with AVZ and according to BTD have no plans to sell any of their shares (inc. those eventually converted from options on or before April 2022).
c) Majority of the remaining options under the April 2 issuance belong to a NY based insto. It is therefore likely (according to BTD) that they are the ones that have been selling on market. BTD opines that they may have held ~40 million options and since 25m of these have been converted, suggests that only ~15m are still to be converted over the next couple of months i.e. based on the current rate of conversion.
However, BTD also opines that this NY based insto has been using their opportunity to quietly accumulate AVZ shares, and therefore only some of what they have reportedly converted have have been sold on market (probably to fund their remaining investment IMO). If this is the case, then one could reasonably deduce IMO that in total so far, only a part of the 25m shares have been sold on market since the conversion process for these oppies began.
Therefore the takeout for investors might be that;
1. Yibin have ZERO oppies
2. Those that keep blaming / throwing Pattos name around like confetti (and wrongfully asserting a pump & dump) should immediately STOP or be ignored and condemned for fearmongering, as the reality is Pattos hold ZERO of the 95 million remaining oppies (expiring April 2022).
3. 25 million of these April 2022 oppies have been converted thus far, and only half of these (or thereabouts) are likely to have been sold on market (IMO).
4. A portion of these 25m shares that have IMO likely been sold on market is relatively immaterial in terms of AVZ's overall volume, particularly when one considers that AVZ's daily volume in recent times has been in the tens of millions, with hundreds of 100 of millions of shares having been traded since the first Appendix 2A for these oppies appeared.
5. April 2022 exp. oppies (well in the money) in total will fund AVZ to the tune of
$7.2m, providing an additional 2.5 - 3 quarters of working capital. This is in addition to the ~$10.8m in cash that AVZ held as at 30/9/20, and means that AVZ will have approx.
$18m and 18-21 months of working capital to look forward to.
This is great news IMO, and negates the need for any standard CR down the track. The days of Pattos (now Cannacord) or other 'investor' sharks making a motza at the expense of existing shareholders is well and truly over IMO. As a worst case scenario, some of AVZ's likely $18m war chest could be used to pay for part of the remaining balance owed to Dathomir (10% transfer of ownership due Sept 2021).
However, it is far more probable IMO that the money owed to Dathomir will likely be 100% funded via Project Finance (equity component thereof) which should be completed well before the Sept. 2021 payment date.
Anyhow, IMO no concerns whatsoever re: the above and more importantly looking forward to the company providing a pre-Xmas update and / or one or two announcement/s re;
1. Lithium OTs - IGO's US$1.4billion investment (25% stake) in Greenbushes values the project at US $5.6billion. Remember that Greenbushes is a 30-year old mine that has seen the best of its days and may only be good for another 8-10 years as it goes deeper into the earth's crust. Compare that to 'from surface Manono & King of All Hardrock' with its 50-100 year mine life, and yet Manono is still only valued at US$300m ????? !!!!!
The penny will soon drop IMHO as the market begins to look for value in this space & finally wakes up (more about this in my next post).
2. Tin OT (Tin price going through the roof and now more than double the estimated 20-year LOM price as stated in the DFS, adding an additional
US$700m to the project's bottom line over LOM).
3. Pit floor drilling (due to be completed next week & still on track as of early last week according to BTD),
4. ESIA works / geotechnical survey holes and permitting
5. Sulfate Testwork results (overdue - Canada get your act together please
).
6. SEZ (ministerial reshuffle update and completion of SEZ ETA)
Externally, lots to look forward to as investment banks, fund managers, politicians, mainstream media and society at large finally acknowledges that renewables & EVs are 100% the future. Hence why Lithium, Tin (the No.1 commodity most impacted by new technology) and Tesla on a tear and Tesla looking to go for another BIG extended run next week in lieu of;
Tesla joining the S&P 500 is going to be 'the mother of all' stock-market events - MarketWatch
GLTA and have a great weekend.
Cheers
Elpha
