Nice concluding statement
@mikesz - and I guess that's the point of these bold acquisitive moves on NAL by SYA - The ' acceleration's ' as you say or fast-tracking the company to ' sustainable ' production with largely already existing assets makes perfect sense on a whole lot of levels.
Not only is the timing massively opportunistic , but as I have stated many times before - It's ALL about the increased tonnages and geographical logistic's all the way along the Route du Nord corridor..... or as I have coined it - ' The Quebec ' Lithium Super Highway ' , which due to the proximity's of SYA's potential multiple lithium projects provides the distinct advantages and strengths over some competitor's in creating a ' cornerstone ' plank in Quebec realizing it's ambition to develop a ' true ' lithium hub ' strategy in Canada.
If we then say the capacity limits will be issued at 2 or 3 cents in accordance with my ' Triple Jump ' analogy / theory - with the ' Hop segment being the .03 cent options , the Step being the.04 cent options , and finally the Jump representing the 7.8 cents April 2020 option exercise price ......ALL of which will ' build up ' from a running start which is what we are just beginning to see being reflected in the current re-rating of the the SP.
And so that is what we are seeing now - the running start and the ' Stealth ' factor which you have mentioned. This is of course the Market's anticipation of the successful Bid , the inherent estimated costs being predicted for a successful winning Bid , and the obvious increased enterprise value perceived by the markets to be reflected on SYA and released on completion of a successful Bid. So it's natural to see the SP begin to factor all these issues in ahead of any decision's being made by the Courts and the Quebec Government Authorities.
In my opinion , If the market likes it , we will perhaps see ALL these different components mentioned in the financing end of things ALL coming together within a short span of a few months......
In so far as these funding components of the the deal , and as I have mentioned - there will be MANY moving parts to the deal including potential Debt for Equity Swap's , deferred interest , no interest , or concessional loans offset against initial agreed production targets, and obvious strategic placements to , and by ' Joint Partners '.
However , If we start by looking at our own side of the ledger , we would begin the exercise by examining the potential raising's by the various Option's Series. So lets recap where some of the money is likely to come from :-
110,123,160 unlisted 3 cent options expiring 23rd July 2023
( includes 624,716 Options to each of Jett Capital Advisors LLC and EL & C Baillieu Limited - for part payment )
plus: a further 4,000,000 3 cent employee unlisted options expiring Nov 29th 2021
and 4,000,000 4 cent employee unlisted options expiring Nov 29th 2022
So from the 3 & 4 cents option series , we could expect up to a total amount being raised of $3,583,695
And then there is the 120,242,589 options at 7.8 cents expiring 30th April 2020 potentially raising a further $9,378,921
So total amount potentially raised from all options would then be $12,962,616
In my opinion and as previously discussed - before we see a ' Mega ' raise through a Rights Issue permitted under ASX listing Rules 7.2 and its associated exceptions , it would be my opinion that we would see our capacity limits of 7.1 (15% ) and 7.1 A ( 10% ) FULLY utilized before a potential 1 for 1 rights issue. The reason is clear in that we could then raise more through the rights issue with the newly expanded capital base. So with the 15% of 7.1 together with the 10% under 7.1 A we could raise a further combined $7,834,103 at 2.0 cents from the issue of a further 197,023,109 shares ( 15% ) and 194,682,073 placement shares (10 %) . The amount would adjust to $11,751,155 if the limits were raised at 3.0 cents.
So that's a potential grand total being raised through CURRENT Capacities plus Option's exercising's and before proceeding with a future rights issue under 7.2 of a very modest $24,713,771.
After these initial raises, we could potentially be then looking at a very handy and still reasonable total SOI of approximately 2,547,649,067 ( including the 95 million issued at NIL consideration to Acuity Capital for potentially providing a further $3 million in standby Equity - and ONLY including conversion of 3 cent options ) . So if a Rights Issue were then to be conducted at say the 2.0 cent level - that's an additional $50,952,981. However if done at the ' Magical ' .03 cent level , it then be a massive = $76,429,472. An you can then add another $3 million somewhere along the line for the ' Entry ' of Acuity Capital if SYA so wishes.
As I have said before , one also has to take into account and appreciate the obvious current Institutional Support which has not really wavered on it's holdings since the collapse in 2018 with Insto's and Director's still holding significant if not increased percentages since early 2018. So anything is possible should they wish to expand and raise the capital in this fashion. In my opinion, it's not really about dilution of the Company's potential enterprise value if ultimately it re-rates SYA to between $200 an $400 million market capitalization in reasonably quick order.
At the end of the day , one has to consider that 4 billion SOI seems to be the ' New ' 2 billion in this present climate and when you look right across the EV metal Industry and various players. So I am not so much concerned about a potential ' Future ' 1 for 5 consolidation of the register when the Company could potentially be worth $400 million - Because there in lies the tremendous growth opportunity between now and then . Plus a consolidation in my opinion is not likely until well into 2022.
So I will gladly reiterate a statement I made back in my post on 11th December ..........
:-
" Either way , and in my opinion , it would seem that .03 cents via a quick re-rating to .02 cents is highly probable between now and 21st January 2020. Exciting times is an understatement and the main reason I have been ' Silently ' accumulating since prices below the last Capital Raise. "
(20min delay)
