I really hope that the company gets at least 200mil OB's converted => $2mil into the kitty. Combine that with 2.2mil - 0.8 mil (expected spend this quarter) - 0.35 mil (to Vale) = $3mil approx, which I think may be sufficient for initial JORC based on existing drill holes (I am not an expert in JORC, so anyone please feel free to correct me), plus some limited drilling / exploration aimed at extending the high-grade resource as per the last announcement.
I think roughly 50mil OB's would be converted from management side: 18mil Darren + 15 mil Roger + some from other management team and may be a few from George Bolin. So they probably need another 150mil OB's to be converted to avoid a short-term CR. I really hope (that's the best we could do at this late stage) we get the cash from OB's as it avoids a manipulation by Sophs and unnecessary perks such as 20% discount and CTMOC's to Sophs.
It's interesting to see two sides of the coin in the last few days. The pessimist side - who are frustrated by the lack of follow through clarifications/punch from the management since the Jaguar deal, especially considering the expiry of OB's. I'm sure a few have vented the need for further clarifications by emailing or calling or tweeting (certainly can see some in responses to Roger's tweets). This camp, which I don't blame and can completely understand the frustrations being a long-term holder myself, believes the price is artificially propped up @ 1c to encourage more OB's conversion. And believes that in short term a CR would hurt us.
On the other side, the optimist group, who mainly joined recently off the back of Jaguar, probably since Jambi too, looking at the upside of the Nickel resource and the low MC compared to the resources at-hand. This group believes the price is suppressed at 1c to stop OB's conversion so that an underwriter or Sophs can get some advantage.
Both sides are totally valid IMO. The company has been slow since late last year in progressing Salobo. Simulus stuffed us up by putting Itty inside their bottom draw...both Cobalt and Ni resources in Itty could have generated some positive buzz in the current environment where prices of both metals are soaring. Jambi's work till date while great was started late and purely IMO could've been fast tracked even further if they were on the ball with the ironore price rise in Q2. The cash terms attached to Jaguar as well as the need for cash to further advance it was not clearly justified when the project was announced, many of us now digested the info, but if you look back many were clearly thinking that "there has to be more to that story" and "we will hear about it soon". I believe this was indirectly done through the articles released in the media by Barry Fitzgerald and Tim Treadgold recently, but probably more was expected.
The feedback of Jaguar has been great so far, yet we are still struggling to find an underwriter to the options.
On the flip side, heaps of shares were traded through 0.9c in the last few months, and the push through 1c recently. Who are all these buyers? Clearly not all are retail; @spackman any chance you have a recent Top20 that you could share please? Nickel is in great position now; it could go down based on what Indonesia does, but the risk vs reward seems to be good currently. The resource @ Jaguar seems of decent size, and if we were not in the current cash crunch and OB's situation, probably would have punched through 1.2c, based on the chart. Both 20 and 50 MAs are trending up with decent volumes. A CR directly with an institution would seriously impact any Sophs looking for OB's to not convert and planning to pick some cheapies.
Sorry for the long winded post The fact that I am spending time to write this obviously shows that I am still a believer in CTM. I am marginally irritated that a follow through news/clarification didn't came through post Jaguar, silence doesn't work well at this end of the market, especially with all the nonsense going on in the world markets.Even if management has a fantastic plan, the moment they want to execute could coincide with a crap day in the broader market (like Jaguar's announcement and Itty's acquisition announcement), so if they have any aces up their sleeve, either hurry up or soon those would be useless.
Having said all of the above, I am still a retail and many retails might be thinking the same way, while non-retail/high-end of the retail who saw the upside are swopping the shares banking on some of the above mentioned weaknesses. What do I know time will tell. All IMO, I am not advising either to buy or sell...but think about all situations and make an informed decision folks!
The fact that I am spending time to write this obviously shows that I am still a believer in CTM. I am marginally irritated that a follow through news/clarification didn't came through post Jaguar, silence doesn't work well at this end of the market, especially with all the nonsense going on in the world markets.Even if management has a fantastic plan, the moment they want to execute could coincide with a crap day in the broader market (like Jaguar's announcement and Itty's acquisition announcement), so if they have any aces up their sleeve, either hurry up or soon those would be useless.
(20min delay)