true @jammak What's disappointing though is that the sp is...

true @jammak

What's disappointing though is that the sp is sooooo close to the strike price, just couple of pushes in the past few months would've probably resulted in a much better situation for OB's conversion.

IMO, The progress and news flow has been average this year (2019). Apart from ASX mandated updates (quarterlies, annual reports), the below is what we've got since 11th Oct, when Pebas drilling was stopped.


1) 22 Oct - Auger drilling results @ Itty, and a second phase RC drilling plan @ Itty...which never commenced, either because the drilling permits for creek and wetlands are still not approved or because of JV with Simulus

2) 23 Nov - Conquista project divestment, it's a pretty small one compared to the other projects

3) 27 Nov - Simulus JV

4) 3rd and 11th Dec - couple of updates on Salobo potential targets

Then the below since Jan 2019

5) 24 Jan - 40T sample @ Itty shipped to Simulus, which as at last update is yet to be analysed

6) 25 Feb - some results from the trenches dug for the 40T sample @Itty

7) 1 Mar - Chris Banasik on the board...this to me is one of the best news this year

8) 21 Mar - CR

9) 29 May - PFS update started for Jambreiro...remember they mentioned about intention of doing this on 5 Apr, so 2 months lag, which is what I alluded to in my previous post that they could've moved at faster pace w.r.t. this one

10) 5 Jul - updated PFS for Jambreiro

11) 6 Aug - Jaguar acquisition

This might look pessimist, but I am not blaming management entirely for this, they can't create news flow out of thin air. In my view, it's a combination of Itty JV situation, Icmbio dragging Salobo licence and some bad luck/timing! What could've been done by management to show some support is:

- convert their OB options early enough this month to show their commitment
- reduce/hold their pay packages or take some shares in-lieu of some salary.
- buy some shares on the market, at least when we were @0.5/0.6c

Such actions, even if small'ish can go a long way in building investor confidence, and I have seen this in few other spec companies generating a positive outcome. All IMO, I am not a mining executive or not even close to that so this might be complete rubbish or impractical from management's point of view.

Now to look forward positively, thinking as a glass half full kind of guy:

- CTMOB failure means 620mil less shares in the register, so we stay at 2.7bil for now
- the company might raise couple of mil dollars at 0.7c-0.9c (as long as they don't offer too steep discount), so probably 300mil more shares.
- if the company kicks some goals by Jan 2020, there are 150mil unlisted options @1.5c that were issued to sophs (i.e. deeper pockets, where as CTMOBs mostly went to retail through SPP) in the past => another couple of mil $ early in new year at a higher price
- HZM.L's name was mentioned couple of times by @matchbox20, and I've noticed that the company's official twitter account is now following Roger's account. While I am not starting any rumour that HZM is interested in CTM (they are following many other Aussie posters / brokers in twitter), the best I could infer is that CTM now is "probably" being noticed by some non-Aus Nickel players, possibly operating in Brazil, and could show some interest down the track if we prove the resources, if Nickel is still hot and if such players are looking for an easy increase in tonnage coupled with an offtake contract with Vale!

These might look utterly ridiculous points to seasoned investors, so treat them as for amusement purposes only to kill some time on the weekend.

Enjoy the weekend all and let's see what crap the market throws at us next week, with all the trade war and yield curve dramas last night.