GUF guildford coal limited

Ann: Appendix 3B - Shares Issued on Exercise of Unlisted Options, page-2

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    since the "COAL GFC", has any1 got an updated chart of coal companies by market cap? Would be good to know relative value of GUF, especially as now a producer?

    some reading..
    Peak coal illusion
    BUT that is not the case if, as most commodity forecasters suspect, the very concept of peak coal is illusory. Wood Mackenzie is in no doubt that it is, saying in a recent report that China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030.
    "China's demand will grow to approximately 7 billion tonnes per annum of thermal coal, which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade," its Beijing-based president of global markets William Durbin penned recently.
    At this point, it is worth letting that seven billion tonnes-a-year call sink in. On 2011 figures from the World Coal Association, the world consumed 7.6 billion tonnes of coal in 2011 of which 6.6 billion tonnes was thermal coal (China's own thermal coal production was 2.8bn tonnes). So the idea here is that China alone will consume as much thermal coal annually in 2030 as it and the rest of the world currently consumes.
    It kind of puts a new spin on just what a tonne of thermal coal in the "resource" category is going to be worth in the long run when it is sitting in a major export nation like Australia. More than 1c a tonne you would think.
    Durbin reckons that while China has an aggressive investment program for nuclear, gas and renewables capacity, the program is focused on the coastal region while coal-fired capacity is growing in the central and western provinces.
    "Indeed, there is also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand," Durbin said.
    And his seven billion tonne call takes in to account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the "likes' of which have not been seen. "We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth," he said.
    "In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 terawatt hours by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
    Durbin reckons natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. And the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low-cost coal.
    None of what Durbin was talking about took in likely demand from India, which is increasingly reliant on imported sources of thermal coal to keep the lights on.
    Aussie straw hats
    SO in the longer term at least, all is not lost for Aussie coal juniors, which have had a horror year. CIMB's Australian Junior Coal Index (13 stocks) has the sector down 50 per cent year-to-date.
    CIMB's preferred junior was Cokal (CKA), last trading at 16.5c a share, but it has a coking coal focus, in Indonesia no less. So for today's purposes, it is back to those stocks trading on an EV/R valuation metric of 1c a tonne or thereabouts, remembering it is a valuation metric that has its shortcomings.
    Stocks in that category include MetroCoal (MTE) and Bandanna Energy (BND) and so on. It might be easier to mention the junior coal stock with the highest EV/R -- Bathurst Resources at all of $1.07 a tonne. But it is another one with a coking coal focus. Mind you, coking coal demand is not exactly on the wane, given ongoing expectations that China's steel output will pull up somewhere north of one billion tonnes.
 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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