As I said previously......all eyes on management in the coming weeks--although today's ann sped
that up a bit at least in relation to the exercise price of 63m options
@10c. Now........call me
cynical but i would probably hate to see that "news" re rate contracts/timelines and/or new
acreage appear by the end of the week, to give a further boost to a clearly recovering SP. My
diversified portfolio of FAR alone won't complain though, simply the timing of it....that's
assuming anything will be released, of which now I remain certain it will be.....for a CR some
time in the next month or so {my opinion only}. The deadline for the expiry of those 20m
options for CN and their subsequent "exercise", coupled with the continuing Greek "tragedy" saw
the SP down to 7.3c. Hence the quick action to convert those 63m options on July 1
@10c EP,
particularly if "news" as above is imminent--I think if it comes it should give the SP more of a spike
{as it is now recovering imo} v if it came say 3-4 weeks ago in its downtrend. If they are going to
raise, then "eyes on them" to capture those $ at a good SP {some would argue 11c or greater} via
news flow, current POO & market sentiment, timeline to first appraisal etc etc.
Options smoptions, I can't figure it all out in the end, everyone's after a buck. What I do know is
that they are all worthless {the 63m anyway} if the A&E is a monumental failure. If it is declared
commercial at some stage then 10c, 13 or 15c EP won't make a difference in the end---the dilution
would be that miniscule it's not worth worrying about. I simply added at 7.6c to avoid what small
dilution those options represent.
So, even though I don't see the urgency to raise, if it does come, hopefully it is around the above
scenario and we can get it away @ >10cps, with a generous offering to US, the owners. You've
had your little present via options recently {and jolly good luck to you}. Now, if you are going to raise
pre-appraisal then hopefully it's done at a good SP and we get a good bite of any discount offered and
then some.
Welcome back to Aqua {good time to be back apart from the stink of Greece} as the SP looks to be
on the path to recovery and July is upon us--leaving less than 3 months to spud....News will be
needed to confirm the OCT 1 spud date though as time drags on, markets like certainty in these
times especially. I like PJ's stuff and yours, we are all on the same train, for the moment at least.
All I can add to it is this, for simplicity sake ;
Assume a time-line till March 31 2016 {6 months}.
Assume 3 drills {2A, 1E} are completed and full results pretty well known.
Assume POO Brent Crude $70bbl
Assume NO CR or further dilution until post March 31 {although v highly unlikely &hopefully
if it does occur only by 10% by March 31 2016}. Call it 3.5B shares.
Assume SNE 2 & 3 flow successfully at good sustained rates, ready to be capped as future production
wells.
Assume Bellatrix is a success & proves up 2C to FAR of 24mmbbl @ 13.7%.
Assume Bellatrix has also proven or likely increased the chances considerably that SNE itself
will be proven up to the outer layer of 670mmbbl as 2P,3P/1C reserve/resource--net to FAR 92mmbbl--
Bellatrix {whilst possibly a higher gamble success wise v Sirius, Soleil etc} could really answer 2
questions here--
{1} new reservoir success v Albian sands of the current discovery & Sirius/Soleil bodes well for
similar targets/structures on the shelf--overall prospectivity would have to increase considerably
across our holdings.
{ii} The growing conviction of 670mmbbl and greater from SNE itself.
This would be my "best" case scenario for FAR SP come March 2016 under the previous
assumptions ; I would take $70 oil in a heartbeat now, doubt it will be higher. This is the
most that could be achieved imo from the initial 3 well program,
{1} Total of 116mbbl net to FAR ; 2P/3P- 45mmbbl SNE 2/3, 2C- 71mmbbl SNE/Bellatrix
{ii} 3.5B shares on issue fully diluted.
{iii} $10-$15 for 2p/3p, $5 for 2C
{iv} prospectivity of remaining acreage to increase to $2.50 fair value. If SNE & Bellatrix alone can
deliver these figures alone, then the shelf containing 1Bboo recoverable should be a walk in the park.
You would have to start looking at a least of a few of those targets achieving their P10 figures, rather
than their P50's May have close to another 90mmbbl recoverable if the shelf can yield 1.5Bboo.
So, value 45mmboo 2P/3P @ $12.50 = $562m.
71mmboo 2C @ $5 = $355m
Prospectivity upgraded further @ another 90mm net to far from previous 116mmboo net, valued
at 90mmboo x $2.50 = 225m
"Value" of FAN prospects??? Hard one to put a figure on but if we were to sell we could command
perhaps a 2C on Beer discovery and say $1 per barrel on the other prospects if sold off--total
for me about $300m only on T/O however.
So, 40-45c on acreage in Senegal alone fair value. IF a sell out were to come then possibly add
a premium of 50-100% to sell out of Senegal. So 60c-80cps possible in the above environment.
A lot of stars would have to align admittedly, that's why it's best case scenario imo.
Beyond March 2016, if no takeover were to eventuate, then we get into the raise & drill phase
again, attempting to prove up further value over a longer time frame. Plenty more time to
work on those tables {at higher values in your case PJ--but not as quite as high as Kosmos
Aqua
}.
Any chartists out there ?? FAR looks to have reversed....
GLTAH
(20min delay)