Copper (and other commodities) won't bottom until we see some...

Copper (and other commodities) won't bottom until we see some major miners go belly up and a significant curtailing of supply occur.

At present we're starting to see the shuttering of some higher cost mines - e.g. Glencore's zinc assets but lower cost producers are filling the hole thus not impacting supply.

The last major demand boom was exacerbated on the by the Chinese trade (buying metals and storing them to use as collateral for loans). This all has to unwind. Simon Hunt has provided very good analysis on this for copper for a few years now.

The supply side ramped up as a result with the 'super cycle' narrative based on the thesis that this demand growth % would continue forever ... wrong.

Only once there is a major clean out in the supply side of higher cost mines will there be a bottom in the market. Low cost credit isn't helping as it is allowing the zombies to continue operating.

Those heavily indebted miners, but operationally sound ones, will also keep producing despite incurring their own credit event - it is simply that the ownership changes from the equity holders to the creditors ... the mines (and wells) will keep on supplying the market.

It'll be a long road IMO for all miners (including RTG).

Cheers
John