Ann: Appendix 3B, page-17

Morning all,

That chart is actually worth looking at to do with Alexium.


There are two things which stand out to me massively.


First ------- see how the chart completes in the first picture below at End –

Note that End is actually lower than where Start is.


Now – would you get that sort of graph and all it’s machinations of wild run up and then plummeting in a share that is built purely on speculation? Or would you get that sort of pattern in a business that is ACTUALLY building and making money – and, lots of it?

The slightest bit of common sense tells us that in a business that is successful – there is NO way that ‘End’ can be lower than ‘Start’ – with an overrider of the possibility of something like a 1929 market crash – but, even then, if the business is generating cash and most likely dividends – then, that is probably not going to happen either.

Here is the first pic






Now --------- if we accept the above as common sense and logical ---------- we can still use the chart with some educative effect.

So - even though our chart is for a purely speccie play --------- those same emotions exist for solid company stocks -------- sometimes ---------

PARTICULARLY if the business is strong and fast growing - there are a few examples around ATM.

So - lets put a stop on our chart where a 'solid' growing business might have a sizable retracement to -- ie. I cut off the end point early - make your own adjustments where they fit - following are mine.

You will see that I have been very pessimistic in the size of the retrace - that's for example purpose -




Now - can we accept that is a wildly growing business and shareprice - that the above 'might' be possible?

Well, she's a wild ride - but, I think it is possible.

So - now look at this --------

IF this is possible ----------- just where would we be on that chart?

The chart makes it very very clear --------
we would be roughly ----------(ROUGHLY) where I have marked NOW ----

why?

Because the chart tells us very clearly who is driving the SP - and, you can see - as clear as day - that we don't have institutional push yet --------------------- so,

we have to be BEFORE that part of the cycle.






Ok - if that makes sense --------- and, if the chart is telling the truth - then it is in black and white before our eyes -

that means that ------------- at a guess IMO --

that as our SP is around 80 cents ATM - IF that chart were linear - then, I would see the top of that cycle being about 6 Bucks.

However, IF that chart were logarithmic ---------- then (and, I am only guessing) - the top of the cycle would put the Share Price closer to 60 Bucks.

Now - one could argue over the 6 or 60 until the cows come home - but, I think one should be able to get the gist of what I am saying.

Make sense?

Here is our 6 or 60 dollar chart



Now - of course we can take it all with a grain of salt - because it doesn't always happen like that - but, often, it does.

Make sense?

Here is our weekly chart ------- you can see - if we relate it to the above charts - then, we are only very very early in the cycle.






have a great day all

Pinto