The key question is the one raised by painkiller towards the top of this thread. If the insiders think it more likely than not that they will drill into the porphyry before Christmas and before the expiry of this tranche of options (which is 31 Dec 18) why did they exercise those options in October? And the only rational answer is that on balance they do not think that the company will drill into a porphyry rich in copper and gold before Christmas.
Take the circumstances of Chris Cairns for instance. He exercised 2,500,000 options using the cashless exercise mechanism to pick up 992,542 SVY shares. Assuming the share price on 25 Oct 18, the day he exercised those oppies, was 29 cents he picked up about $288,000 in SVY shares. But what if he had waited until the company drilled into the porphyry, say, sometime in December. From what Chris Cairns and a number of others have said if and when that happens the SVY share price will shoot up multiples of the current share price. Let's be conservative and say the SVY goes up to $1.19 and if Chris Cairns were to exercise his 2.5m oppies at that stage then instead of him picking up 992,542 shares he would pick up 2,100,840 shares.
Moreover, with the SVY share price at $1.19 the shares that he picked up from exercising his oppies after the porphyry discovery and consequent share price rise would have a value of $2.5m rather than $1.2m he would have from holding the shares he picked up by exercising his options in October.
If Chris Cairns is right and Stavely hits the porphyry before Christmas then by his decision to pull the trigger on his oppies in October and not in December may well turn out to be a million dollar decision.
