thanks @BWinter and @HAC30 for a knowledgeable discussion.
My take on it: discount rate is to come up with a basis to evaluate feasibility... separate to cost of capital.
Cost of capital -
70% debt - i have no idea but let's say 10% is what we get. That gives us net 7% cost (1-30% tax)
30% equity - this is essentially free but cost depends on the discount offered to new investors from full potential. will it be 5% or 10%?
focusing on the equity component, say they need $400 million.
if we think AUZ ends up being valued at $500 million and the new shareholders stump up $400million... then current holders would end up being valued at $100million. Is this correct? It tells me there is no upside for holding on.. unless you stump up cash for the new issue and hope the $500 million valuation goes up to say $650million... giving a 30% return to all holders. But i say this again.. that never gets even close to last week's sp so not much upside left for us.
i just cant get over this... hmm.. too much analysis never did anyone much good
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