I only invest in gold if I think it's a good business not because I think the gold price will rise or fall. 10 yr note is heading towards 2% and AUD also following suit. There is disconnect in the fixed interest/currency markets and couldnt care less where it goes - although influential it doesn't dictate decisions over the 6-12 months.
On that premise though, XAUAUD is substantially higher in the six months between July-December 2019 than January-June 2019. So we are theoretically looking at an uplift of minimum 20% in sales. If XAUAUD stays between 2150-2000 over the next six months then we are possibly going to crack $1B EBITDA and $400M NPAT. Albeit Capex is relatively high in FY 20 we are still looking at ~$500M FCF and dividends to come out of that should, if all things are equal of course, will be sweet.
Gold can of course be scary and not for everyone you wouldnt want to be involved with some gold muttlies with fleas roaming around, this isnt one of them....I believe we will get record or close to record number for HY 20 report... looking at 6c dividend will be nice.
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