Badger - I guess short answer is marginal cost is $10/barrel, and we are selling to a hedged contract of $50/barrel so makes sense to deliver that. Any production above the hedged contract volume is at the whim of market price and Louisina Light is now $30 so that makes sense also. You are correct the driver of profit will be oil prices and its hard to predict what will happen in short term.
If i was investing for a 12 month period and looking to sell out to make a profit in a year, i would have the same concern as you. USA could easily go into a 2nd wave, oil demand falls, so oil prices stay depressed, BYE profits stay depressed
But I am not investing with a 1 year time horizon, I want to hold this for 5 years or so and I think the impacts of covid will be well over by then, and we will have returned to a more normal demand for oil, and BYE will hopefully be sitting on a lot of oil producing wells selling at a higher price with low marginal costs. The share price can only rise in that scenario.. certainly well above 13/15c
BYE Price at posting:
15.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
